Thursday, August 13, 2009

More like Blue Gays

(Bad pun? Yeah. Hard to resist, though.)

This past weekend, the Toronto Blue Jays held a 'Back2Back' weekend - a reunion for players and coaches from the 1992 and 1993 World Series-winning Jays teams.

They also let Alex Rios, a popular and competent player, leave for another team in exchange for literally nothing.

These two events showcased an astoundingly clear example of the wholesale change in how the Toronto Blue Jays approach winning over the past fifteen years.

Once upon a time, the Blue Jays were the best team in baseball. And, rich with the money of every Canadian who drank Labatts, they also had the biggest payroll in baseball. When they needed a new whatever, they could go out and buy it.

Now, the Blue Jays cannot afford to outspend the rest of baseball, so they must find a way to build a strong team without breaking the bank.

This is understandable. The Yankees and Red Sox are spending ridiculous amounts of money on the best players, and Rogers is gouging my pockets enough - I don't want to see my cable bill being raised to pay for a starting pitcher who doesn't work out.

But just for fun, I'm going to take two problems faced by the 1992 Jays, and two problems faced by today's Jays. I will tell you what the relevant team did, and what the irrelevant team would have done.

(Conclusion: while obviously the 1992 strategies won't always work now, because the Jays *can't* outspend the rest of baseball, there's a happy medium far closer to their end of the spectrum.)

PROBLEM THE FIRST

The Setup: The 1991 Blue Jays had eight solid starters. Unfortunately, the ninth - primarily the DH position, although it rotated a bit - could never quite be filled. And with Mookie Wilson gone, there was no longer a bona fide starter to take up the mantle.

The Solution (1992): Sign Dave Winfield. He's willing to DH most of the time, he's somebody fans can get behind, and he's one of the best hitters in the game.

The Solution (2009): Well...you don't really need to spend the money, you should be able to fill the hole from within. Maybe Rance Mulliniks will bounce back into shape. If he doesn't, odds are good that at least one of Derek Bell and Jeff Kent will prove ready to hit major league pitching. Worst case scenario, you have to rely on Pat Tabler or Ed Sprague a little more than you'd like. Five possibilities for one spot? That's a lot! Hell, most of those guys can play third - let's trade Kelly Gruber!

PROBLEM THE SECOND

The Setup: The 1992 Jays aren't getting the starting pitching performances that a world champion needs. Jack Morris, Juan Guzman, and Jimmy Key provide a solid top three, and Todd Stottlemyre's okay when necessary, but there's not much to go on past that.

The Solution (1992): Thanks to signing Dave Winfield, we're left with the problem of Jeff Kent - a talented player who we just don't have room for. Let's trade him for one of the best pitchers in the game, David Cone!

The Solution (2009): Whaddaya mean no other options? Dave Stieb could be back by the playoffs. David Wells wasn't doing *that* bad, but if you insist on a replacement, we've got Pat Hentgen, Doug Linton, those guys. Maybe Mike Timlin could be stretched into a starter. We're fine!

PROBLEM THE THIRD

The Setup: The 2009 Jays have one of the best pitchers in baseball - Roy Halladay. But his contract ends in 2010, and retaining him - if it's even possible - will be very expensive. His trade value is at its peak right now. What to do?

The Solution (1992): Well, you don't have a good enough team to seriously contend in either 2009 or 2010, and if you sign Halladay past that it'll tie up too much money to improve what needs improve him. So trade him. Get the best deal you can - young players who *will* be good in the majors but haven't had the chance to jack up their value with a track record.

The Solution (2009): Yeah, we might win, but it'll be at the cost of all the fans who won't accept a winning team if it means we got rid of their favourite player. Let's keep him and the fans' goodwill.

PROBLEM THE FOURTH

The Setup: Much like in 1992, the Jays are one player short of a bona fide starting nine. Also like 1992, all the defensive positions are represented - so literally any major-league-caliber hitter would work.

The Solution (1992): You might be surprised by this, but we think you should ride it out. You won't contend this year, so don't part with any of your prospects. Wait until the off-season, then find a decent hitter on the free agent market. It's not what we'd do in our situation, but given your financial standing, it makes the most sense. Bautista, Millar, Inglett - they're not good enough for a contending team, but they're good enough for now.

The Solution (2009): Damn right they're good enough for now. And why waste three of them on one spot? Let's get rid of Alex Rios so only one of them has to sit at a time!

The Rebuttal (1992): That makes no sense. Rios is a better player than any of them. Beyond that, Rios is a *good* player, who you could actually get something for if you wanted to. Beyond THAT, your last decision was on the basis of fan loyalty - and the fans love Rios. Either you were lying then or you're lying now, which is it?

The Rebuttal (2009): It's not a lie if we know the truth.

--Ryan

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