Low demand for consumer electronics LEDs, such as those Backlit units for LCD TVs, will be weak until at least till Q1 2012. It was clear that demand for nonlighting
LED applications continues to be tepid. Veeco indicated the utilization rates
for its MOCVD equipment in Korea and Taiwan was 60%, Rubicon indicated it will probably take until the end of the year to draw down excess levels of sapphire and LED wafers. This weakness for consumer electronics grade LEDs does have an impact on all LED pricing, even for higher performance lighting grade products.
The continued oversupply of LEDs in general will help to accelerate LED lighting adoption due to the suppressed LED pricing outlook.
We think the best place to invest will be as far downstream as possible in the LED-based lighting food chain. This is where we expect to see the highest revenue growth rates and most shelter from weakness in the broader LED sector should the macro outlook remain weak. We also believe a general rise in utility-based subsidies for LED-based lighting will occur over the next 18 months helping to accelerate adoption.
LED-based lighting demand growth remains strong in Spite of the weak macro
environment. The current equipment demand slow down is purely due to over-capacity in the past two years. Let’s wait for another 9-12 months, it will come into a higher level of production utilization and that would be time for next equipment Purchase.
HK Snob
Showing posts with label LED Market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label LED Market. Show all posts
Wednesday, September 14, 2011
Thursday, September 1, 2011
When LED Market Will Grow again?
LED MOCVD Installation
Korea and Taiwan dominated in number of MOCVD installation in 2009.
China came up as leading installation region and became major site for installation since Q4’10. China is expected to continue to be the dominant MOCVD market until Q3’ 12
But China will shrink from three third down to 60% in Q4’12 when Taiwan and Korea rebounds.
Largest MOCVD Installation Base
Epistar is expected to be #1 MOCVD customer in 2012, followed by San’an, GCL Opto, SemiLEDs and Genesis Photonics onpur.
Such Rapid expansion in 2010-2011lead to an overcapacity that we think it will be fully utilized only by mid 2012.
LED lighting Status
Total LED lighting demand in Q2 & Q3 2011keeps increasing. The Demand
is 3.2 billion units for Q2’11. And the demand is predicted to be 3.4 billion units for Q3’11. The Growth is not seen as significant as we expected beginning of the year.
LED lighting Players
Due to Government encouragement for going greener energy, limited resources of these islands, as well the March 11 Quake issue that rocked the Nuclear Power plant, alerted Japanese Citizen and Government on using more efficient Source of Light. Japan, as biggest market for LED bulbs in 2011, with market share of 63 %, Japan will remain the biggest lighting market until 2014. Price of LED replacement Bulb keeps on dropping.
The downtrend of LED caused the LED light bulb price to drop from USD83 /Klm in 2010 to USD 52 / Klm at this stage. However, the initial cost of the LED light bulbs is still much higher than that of general light bulbs, so it is still too soon to say whether LED light can fully replace the latter. ASP of Japan LED light bulb was Yen 3000 for 5W in Q1 2010, and dropped to Yen 2,000 in Q1 2011, the speed of ASP drops slow down. That indicates that the adoption is slow down in Q2 2011.
LED bulb growth in China, North America and Europe will be higher than other areas from 2011 to 2014
China - biggest market for LED street lights in 2011, but due to China government policies. With market share of 55 %, but China will slightly decline to 50 % in 2013.
Economic Situation
We are now experiencing dual Core Economy (USA and Europe) slow down though the scale and intensity was not as worse of September 2008. We will not having the same good old day as the maket would bounce back as early as 2009 Q2 3 after Leman Brothers melt down 15 Sep 2008. Government Policy will not focus on Green Energy harvest rater than on job creation, economic reform, and stimulus plan for economy. Less incentive programmes for LED lighting penetration will be generated.
LED lighting Type
Highest penetration in spot lights Due to halogen replacements
Government policies are expected to accelerate LED penetration in street lights after 2011.
Package LED market Forecast
In 2010-2011, rapid expansion of MOCVD in China
Initiated in Korea and Taiwan since 2009.
Cause capacity utilization rate of <50% for certain tools by mid 2012.
It will take 12-18 months to absorb this overcapacity, and that causes a short down cycle
The down cycle will extend through mid 2013!
Some consolidations will bring the industry back to more usual utilization rates of at least 80%, before any capex initiation for next new investment including Manufacturing Equipment such as MOCVD, Die Sorter, Die bonder, wire bonder, tester, package sorter and Taping Machines.
Equipment Forecast for LED lighting
If adoption of LED for SSL happens faster than initially envisioned, it would lead to higher equipment investment levels. Excess capacity installed in 2010-2011 is absorbed much more quickly than expected. The Equipment market will bounce back significantly in Q1 2013 to respond to accelerated demand for general lighting applications.
HK Snob
Korea and Taiwan dominated in number of MOCVD installation in 2009.
China came up as leading installation region and became major site for installation since Q4’10. China is expected to continue to be the dominant MOCVD market until Q3’ 12
But China will shrink from three third down to 60% in Q4’12 when Taiwan and Korea rebounds.
Largest MOCVD Installation Base
Epistar is expected to be #1 MOCVD customer in 2012, followed by San’an, GCL Opto, SemiLEDs and Genesis Photonics onpur.
Such Rapid expansion in 2010-2011lead to an overcapacity that we think it will be fully utilized only by mid 2012.
LED lighting Status
Total LED lighting demand in Q2 & Q3 2011keeps increasing. The Demand
is 3.2 billion units for Q2’11. And the demand is predicted to be 3.4 billion units for Q3’11. The Growth is not seen as significant as we expected beginning of the year.
LED lighting Players
Due to Government encouragement for going greener energy, limited resources of these islands, as well the March 11 Quake issue that rocked the Nuclear Power plant, alerted Japanese Citizen and Government on using more efficient Source of Light. Japan, as biggest market for LED bulbs in 2011, with market share of 63 %, Japan will remain the biggest lighting market until 2014. Price of LED replacement Bulb keeps on dropping.
The downtrend of LED caused the LED light bulb price to drop from USD83 /Klm in 2010 to USD 52 / Klm at this stage. However, the initial cost of the LED light bulbs is still much higher than that of general light bulbs, so it is still too soon to say whether LED light can fully replace the latter. ASP of Japan LED light bulb was Yen 3000 for 5W in Q1 2010, and dropped to Yen 2,000 in Q1 2011, the speed of ASP drops slow down. That indicates that the adoption is slow down in Q2 2011.
LED bulb growth in China, North America and Europe will be higher than other areas from 2011 to 2014
China - biggest market for LED street lights in 2011, but due to China government policies. With market share of 55 %, but China will slightly decline to 50 % in 2013.
Economic Situation
We are now experiencing dual Core Economy (USA and Europe) slow down though the scale and intensity was not as worse of September 2008. We will not having the same good old day as the maket would bounce back as early as 2009 Q2 3 after Leman Brothers melt down 15 Sep 2008. Government Policy will not focus on Green Energy harvest rater than on job creation, economic reform, and stimulus plan for economy. Less incentive programmes for LED lighting penetration will be generated.
LED lighting Type
Highest penetration in spot lights Due to halogen replacements
Government policies are expected to accelerate LED penetration in street lights after 2011.
Package LED market Forecast
In 2010-2011, rapid expansion of MOCVD in China
Initiated in Korea and Taiwan since 2009.
Cause capacity utilization rate of <50% for certain tools by mid 2012.
It will take 12-18 months to absorb this overcapacity, and that causes a short down cycle
The down cycle will extend through mid 2013!
Some consolidations will bring the industry back to more usual utilization rates of at least 80%, before any capex initiation for next new investment including Manufacturing Equipment such as MOCVD, Die Sorter, Die bonder, wire bonder, tester, package sorter and Taping Machines.
Equipment Forecast for LED lighting
If adoption of LED for SSL happens faster than initially envisioned, it would lead to higher equipment investment levels. Excess capacity installed in 2010-2011 is absorbed much more quickly than expected. The Equipment market will bounce back significantly in Q1 2013 to respond to accelerated demand for general lighting applications.
HK Snob
Tuesday, June 7, 2011
OPTILED Galaxy 500 LED Bulbs
Good news to see OPTILED LED replacement Light Bulb is available in as many shops as 73 shops of Fotomax.OPTILED has been promoting the LED light bulbs for over three years and was only available in a few shops at that time. Retail price of Galaxy 500, A 9.5w LED power which is an equivalent of 60W incandescent light, selling at HKD$129 dollars. The Smaller 7W LED power Galaxy 350, equivalent to 40W incandescent light is selling at HKD$89.00. Price is good as they are using Cree LED chips, one of the best LED chip in the world.
Well, the LED bulb has been gaining a lot of popularity. Restaurants, public illumination of the Residential estate on top of MTR station, MTR Train, Bus, CitiStore, Cinema...etc.
Shopping centre is using enormous numbers of LED light bulbs in the commercial market.
A pity that the retarded Government is doing almost noting on LED adoption. Most likely those senior officials are too busy in removing their unauthorized renovation on their house before the next media attack. Next time when you incandescent lamp of CFL lamp is gone, buy LED light bulbs, as it save energy of 80% and at same time money for you.
The OPTILED Galaxy LED light bulb could last 35,000 hours, you may have to replace 35 incandescent light bulbs in 15 years of Galaxy LED operation life.
HK Snob
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
Will LED for BLU Market turn hot again in Q3 2011?
The TV market revenue has been eroded and the Major as LED BLU unit price keeps dropping. The global BLU market is estimated to record $17B in 2010, reached the peak with $19B in 2012. and then Decline thereafter, from these number, we can see that there is not much of a significant growth in 2011 which is what we are waiting for. The number of unit in BLU demand will carry on but the revenue is predicted to decrease after 2012 due to serious ASP drop.
TV BLU market is expected to record $10.7B and accounts for 64% of the overall market in 2010. The TV BLU market share is projected to increase up to 72% in 2014 along with the LCD TV demand increase. Accordingly, Monitor and Note PC BLU markets show signs of decreases in market share. Though the growth of the LCD TV is largest amongst all the products, still the growth is no outstanding at all.
There are signs of rebounce for TV-use TFT LCD panel price which had continuously declining. Upon aggregating TV sales results during Chinese Labor Day season, TV sales in China rose 6% Y/Y to 2.13M units. Although the growth rate was lower than the previous years, the growth itself has reached the anticipated level and is expected to see re-bounce of TV panel price.
TV sales price discount rate was around 15% during first two week of May which was lower than the previous year, and makers focused on promotion for Premium TVs such as 3D TV and Smart TV in order to increase profit margin. The share of 3D TV sales was over 10% and LED LCD TV sales were over 50%.
6 major Chinese TV brands prepared for the Labor Day demand through launching 3D TV at full scale from 1Q 2011, they increase new FPR 3D TV product from April 2011. 3D TV module procurement jumped from 0.5% at the end of 2010 to 8.7% in the last March. As what s had noticed that Sony’s Internet TV and Samsung’s Smart TV would be gaining market share in welcoming the hit wave of this premium TV. Signs for the next BLU Growth is still far away I do not feel comfortable abut Q3 2011 at all. Wish that the major countries would come up with more incentive offer for end user as to stimulate the use of LED lighting.
HK Snob
Ref. Display search.
TV BLU market is expected to record $10.7B and accounts for 64% of the overall market in 2010. The TV BLU market share is projected to increase up to 72% in 2014 along with the LCD TV demand increase. Accordingly, Monitor and Note PC BLU markets show signs of decreases in market share. Though the growth of the LCD TV is largest amongst all the products, still the growth is no outstanding at all.
There are signs of rebounce for TV-use TFT LCD panel price which had continuously declining. Upon aggregating TV sales results during Chinese Labor Day season, TV sales in China rose 6% Y/Y to 2.13M units. Although the growth rate was lower than the previous years, the growth itself has reached the anticipated level and is expected to see re-bounce of TV panel price.
TV sales price discount rate was around 15% during first two week of May which was lower than the previous year, and makers focused on promotion for Premium TVs such as 3D TV and Smart TV in order to increase profit margin. The share of 3D TV sales was over 10% and LED LCD TV sales were over 50%.
6 major Chinese TV brands prepared for the Labor Day demand through launching 3D TV at full scale from 1Q 2011, they increase new FPR 3D TV product from April 2011. 3D TV module procurement jumped from 0.5% at the end of 2010 to 8.7% in the last March. As what s had noticed that Sony’s Internet TV and Samsung’s Smart TV would be gaining market share in welcoming the hit wave of this premium TV. Signs for the next BLU Growth is still far away I do not feel comfortable abut Q3 2011 at all. Wish that the major countries would come up with more incentive offer for end user as to stimulate the use of LED lighting.
HK Snob
Ref. Display search.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Forecast LED Episodes in 2011
Solid State Light LED will be the major topic and market driver in 2011.
2% of LED goes for LED lighting in 2011, approximately 20 % goes for Lighting in 2011.
HB LED revenue hits US$13B in 2011, $16B in 2012 and $19B in 2013.
Major LED markets
Japan will focus on LED lighting for local and for export.LED light bulb price continues to drop from Yen 2,800 in Dec 2010 to Yen 1,400 by end 2011.
China LED market CAGR 30%
50% are for Vertical LED in China
Penetration rate 20% for Lighting, 30% for LED Black light, and 40% for Decorative lighting.
US Continues to reduce the LED light bulb from US$38 in 2010 to US$14 in 2011.
Russia will double of the number of LED makers in 2011 than 2010.
LED TV
Penetration rate goes to 40%
Reduction of number of LED from 250 pieces on 40” LV in 2010 to 100-140 for the same size TV in 2011.
Trend of TV
3D, HD, Smart TV, 240Hz LED back light as the Gadgets
LED TV LED formate goes slim from 3528/3030 in 2009, 5050/5252 in 2010 to 5630/6020 in 2011 as the major LED packages.
2010 top Ten LED Markers
1. Nichia
2. Samsung LED
3. Cree
4. LG Innotek
5. Epistar
6. Osram
7. Seoul Semi
8. Toyoda Kosea
9. Philips Lumileds
10. Toshiba
HK Snob
2% of LED goes for LED lighting in 2011, approximately 20 % goes for Lighting in 2011.
HB LED revenue hits US$13B in 2011, $16B in 2012 and $19B in 2013.
Major LED markets
Japan will focus on LED lighting for local and for export.LED light bulb price continues to drop from Yen 2,800 in Dec 2010 to Yen 1,400 by end 2011.
China LED market CAGR 30%
50% are for Vertical LED in China
Penetration rate 20% for Lighting, 30% for LED Black light, and 40% for Decorative lighting.
US Continues to reduce the LED light bulb from US$38 in 2010 to US$14 in 2011.
Russia will double of the number of LED makers in 2011 than 2010.
LED TV
Penetration rate goes to 40%
Reduction of number of LED from 250 pieces on 40” LV in 2010 to 100-140 for the same size TV in 2011.
Trend of TV
3D, HD, Smart TV, 240Hz LED back light as the Gadgets
LED TV LED formate goes slim from 3528/3030 in 2009, 5050/5252 in 2010 to 5630/6020 in 2011 as the major LED packages.
2010 top Ten LED Markers
1. Nichia
2. Samsung LED
3. Cree
4. LG Innotek
5. Epistar
6. Osram
7. Seoul Semi
8. Toyoda Kosea
9. Philips Lumileds
10. Toshiba
HK Snob
Sunday, January 9, 2011
The HB LED Market Continues to Grow in 2011
From various input and Research including LED Inside, LED magazines, Digitimes, We can have more or less forecast base on the Supply Food Chain of MOCDV I Korea, Taiwan and China. The high-brightness LED chip market is projected to reach US$8.25 billion in 2010 and up to US$12.6 billion in 2011, That is a significant increase of 52%!
With the China government's generous incentives to develop the country's LED industry, Like for an example, to subsidize $1.25M on each MOCVD you purchase. MOCVD machine orders in China during the second half of 2010 exceeded those of South Korea and Taiwan already and will be continuously be the major installation in 2011. Similarly, the installation of Map sorter Machine which is necessary to be expanded in proportionally, an estimated of few thousands map sorters with cycle time of 100ms will be required in this area China, Taiwan and Korea.
Likewise, the Global sapphire ingot capacity in 2011 will nearly double that of 2010.
HBLED chip shipments will increase by a CAGR of 28.6% in 2009-2013, and LED lighting applications, in particular, will grow at a compounded 97.4% pace over the same period versus only 62.6% for LED-backlit LCD monitors. As what I had been mentioned a couple of months ago, The LED lighting and back light modules will become Hot Cakes in 2011.
HK Snob
With the China government's generous incentives to develop the country's LED industry, Like for an example, to subsidize $1.25M on each MOCVD you purchase. MOCVD machine orders in China during the second half of 2010 exceeded those of South Korea and Taiwan already and will be continuously be the major installation in 2011. Similarly, the installation of Map sorter Machine which is necessary to be expanded in proportionally, an estimated of few thousands map sorters with cycle time of 100ms will be required in this area China, Taiwan and Korea.
Likewise, the Global sapphire ingot capacity in 2011 will nearly double that of 2010.
HBLED chip shipments will increase by a CAGR of 28.6% in 2009-2013, and LED lighting applications, in particular, will grow at a compounded 97.4% pace over the same period versus only 62.6% for LED-backlit LCD monitors. As what I had been mentioned a couple of months ago, The LED lighting and back light modules will become Hot Cakes in 2011.
HK Snob
Monday, November 1, 2010
2011 LED Market Forecast for China, Europe and Russia
Since the Samsung launched the LED TV there was approximate 2.9% penetration rate in 2009 and rough 30% in 2010, it was happened mostly in Q1 Q2 of 2010. And down the road, we were expecting that the LED TV would continue to have a record high sales in September, but to our Astonishment, that the maker becoming slow down in End August.
Partly de to the stock level of CCFL Back light was still high, partly CCFL supplier offers lot price attraction for us. We estimate that it will be consuming all stock of CFL by End Dec, in Q1 2011, we believe that the back light LED marker will start to run the LED production in much larger scale. Since the number of LED on each of the LED TV is about 200 for 42” TV. There is a keen reduction (100%) in the number of LED in each of the LED TV especially the Samsung, LGI, etc. The overall market for 2010 on LED is sill strong, not as the major analysis expects 50%, probably around 30%.
Though we know that someone forecasts 2011 would be as high as 50%. That would be a lot still, but do not forget that the figure will be affect by the economy of the area, and the equipment purchase would likely be happened if they have used up all their capacity.
CCFL flight back
With the CCFL flight back with an attractive price as leverage, original LED TV penetration expectation was 30% for 2010. According to Unity Opto ‘s forecast the new penetration rate is 15%-20% for 2010.
Whereas Epistar forecast will be to 20% to 25%. However Epistar would be optimistic for 2011 as Korean would be trigger launch of new model with more attractive features, and at Same Time China will be a big marker demand for LED TV. He is very optimistic to see that all year penetration rate will be touching 40% in 2011.
LED TV Market 2011
The European market would be having another 6% growth for 2011 as comparing with that of 2010. Whereas US may have a light growth of 1-2% only as they have been Saturated with the LED TV shipment typical supplied by Vizio and Samsung. China would the market supporter for LED TV as partly due to the special incentive scheme for TV in rural side, and partly China as to support the consumer electronics segment partly to support the GDP index growth, and partly to maintain the employment of a large work force.
7th Sept, Mr. Zhang Xue Bin, Executive Chairman and CEO of Skyworth, China’s 4th Largest LCD TV makers told to the Hong Kong media and investors that during the April-May LCD TV old stock purging action by selling at a low price. After World Club came to an end we had slash of the TV sales unless there is new stimulus campaign. Skyworth’s CFO said that In China, there are approximately 600M sets of LCD TV what had been servicing for 5-6 years. There is a necessity and need for replacement with by new LCD TVs, amongst these 600 Millions sets, there is at least 48 Millions to 72M sets of them would go for LED Backlight units. These actions of new TV purchase will not stop for next 12 months!
I believe that the Big Players like Samsung, LGE, Sony, Toshiba and Chinese band like Hisense, TCL, Konka and Skyworth, Changhong will carry on shipping out more cost effective LCD TV or a low-Cost-Version TV Before Chinese New year 2011.
TV Sales Gadget
The problem lies in the consumption of the CCFL BLU TV first, it would still have to take 8-10 weeks to absorb this inventory, so there is also a possible trick of selling CCFL BLU with mixed of LED BLU… to tell the consumer, THIS IS LED TV.. Selling at a higher price..nother way to push for more sales revenus is to put LED in one bar or fore concern of the screen, this would be workable for small screen size TVC such as 27” to 37” TV Set.
The purpose is to enlarge the coverage of the LED TV portfolio. Next year, I think the sales if the LED TV would move up to another heights of record as more 3D featured TV and Smart TV will be available, Smart TV to be the home entertainment centre for some of the technology lovers. LED TV cost will be lowered by another 25%-30% as we can buy now. Brighter with lesser LED be more effective light transmission would be the main stream, that will be the evergreen product as a result of the latest LED technology with least power consumption, mercury free and reasonable beautiful picture quality.
An era for LED truly penetration of 40% could be found across all sized… with 32”-40” will be the most popular size as an average.
Base on the market survey we had, there will be more or less an additional 30% as of this years demand on LED for BLU.
Hong Kong LED Light Bulb
We have been using LED light bulb at home for the sake of social conscience and caring of the environment, and as a way to perform the energy harvest. In the two years, the retail selling price is kept on dropping at rate of less 30% a year. A 3W K2 x3 type LED was HKD$330 three years ago, and Now we can get it at about HKD$80.00.
That was the similar as what we could se in HK in the past two years Today I saw the place where I am living are changing all the CFL light bulbs in to the 7W LED at the garden walking path form MTR to each of the buildings. This is a first time happened to see LED being immigrated into one of the largest residential estates.
Japan SSL Market
This is the fastest blooming market for LED replacement light bulb business, reason is mainly due to geographic and historical reason, Japan is intricately lack of any energy resources, they have to struggle for energy harvest. Under such a high living standard county the price of CLF is not low at all, Why not switch to LED! In Akihabara beginning of the year able to see various supply of LED replacement Light bulb in the market, Panasonic, Toshiba Litetech, Sharp and Citizen made LED, light bulb, the price was 4,000 Yen Jan 2010, but now It is just about 2,500 Yen for the same type same model.. That is a significant price drop about 37% in a year!
Japan LED bulb design
Form what we know from the three major supplier for LED bulbs, there is common packaging method by employing a lot of LED 20-168 LEDs in a light bulb. Most f them a low power LED.
Reason is three folds:
1. They would like to go for better heat distribution as the area of contact is much bigger.
2. The smaller the chip size the higher the LED emission efficacy. A small chip of 16x18 mil 0.3W led can have an efficacy of 36%. Where is a 100mil x 100mil Power chip does have 26% only.
3. And there is input that Nichia bought a lot of MOCOV for 3 inch diameter afer. so they have no way but go for smaller chip size.
US and EU LED Package design
Cree, Lumileds, Osram are going for Bigger chip approach. Thus is their strength ad they can have a better chip design, one chip says it all. No matter Ostar, Oslon, Rebel square, XP, Multichip approaches.
The Big Five Movement on Lighting
Nichia is still using their approach of Multi chip format.
Cree is doing more on Lighting, after MacDonal, Star Buck, Burger King, Wart mart and Costco. Cree is working on project with bigger shopping malls, fast food chains in USA for their Lighting LEDs. They have the chip level phosphor application.
Osram is traditional Automobile business model. It is wise to diversify their LED segmentation for more BLU and General Lighting.
Lumileds Rebel it self is a versatile product, no matter BLU, Lighting, general lighting are using the similar package. Their LED is moving into a binning free process, meaning that they will have a better process control on their characteristic on their Lumiramic process such that the binning is minimized down the road.
General Illumination LED for Tunnel
Xi’an Liming, which is one of China’s largest suppliers of outdoor LED lighting as well as manufacturing LED tunnel lighting, worked with the engineering team at Future Lighting Solutions to ensure that the fixtures would meet national tunnel lighting standards as well as have a sustainable LED supply.
The fixtures are providing illumination for the Xinkailing and Wang Zhu Yuan No. 2 tunnels of the Liu’an-to-Wuhan highway, a north-south extension of the Shanghai-to-Wu Wei main line ( one of the country’s key east-west arteries). Running the entire 4.7km (2.9 mile) combined length of the two tunnels, the lighting was a joint project of Xi’an Liming and the Anhui Province Huan Yu Highway Construction Development Co Ltd.
Each 50W and 100W tunnel lamp contains 42 and 72 LUXEON Rebel LEDs, respectively. Each Tunnel of 1Km will use up approximately 1,000 Lamp and each will have 72 Rebel, a tunnel of 5KM will have 360,000 LED…Do not forget There are thousands tunnels in China. So this will be another big portion for their product revenue growth. Similarity, Osram Opto Semiconductors’ Golden Dragon Oval Plus LEDs are being utilized to illuminate the Shanghai Ren Min Road Tunnel and Guangzhou Zhu Jiang New City. Each of the installations used around 30,000 Golden Dragon Oval Plus LEDs from Osram Opto Semiconductors. A Tunnel will contribute approx. half RMB millions of LEDs and another half million for associated electronics.
Note that so far, Only High quality LED such as Osram Gold Dragon Oval and Rebel can be used for Tunnel as we can not allow fany failure of the LED. It is hard to replace the LED light bulb in case of Failure…
LED market in Russia Expansion
Although in recent years the Russian LED market has been characterized by a lack of standardization, a lack of a transparent pricing policy, and low product quality, this situation is changing rapidly. State funding and investment from private companies is helping to build a domestic LED infrastructure and, all over Russia, companies dedicated to LED lighting technologies are emerging.
The Russian state is playing a major role in the development of the domestic Russian LED market. In March 2010 the Presidential Commission for Modernization announced that the transition from incandescent bulbs to energy-efficient lighting devices will not take place by implementing energy-efficient saving lamps (CFLs), but by converting to LEDs directly. The State has also decided to introduce, at short notice, new standards for LED lighting technologies.
There is a strong political willingness to establish LED lighting technologies within the Russian market, and capital investors including private bank and government investor are helping to establish a domestic Russian LED production capability. Currently, Russia imports 98 % of its LED lighting, but this situation will change as domestic suppliers become better established. Meanwhile, Russia’s biggest companies, such as Russian Railways Corporation and Gazprom, are among the largest consumers of LED technology.
Further, the newly-founded Non-Profit Association of Russian LED Manufacturers, which has been established by competitive suppliers Optogan and Svetlana Optoelectronics, is likely to play an important role in the consolidation of the Russian LED lighting market;
Characteristic of Russian LED factories in previous the state owned factory has been manufacturing LED about 20 years ago, surprising to see that their facilities are still more or less the same as 20 years ago. Looking at another angle, Former USSR had an advanced technology on LED and Microelectronics. All they need are certain standardization on equipment and process.
Optogan expands production
As evidence of the growing LED infrastructure in Russia, the St. Petersburg-based company CJSC Optogan recently placed an order with Aixtron for two MOCVD systems for GaN-based LED growth. The St. Petersburg facility was acquired by Optogan from Elcoteq, a global electronics manufacturing services (EMS) company, in May 2010.
Also, Optogan recently appointed Markus Zeiler, a former Osram employee, to oversee the expansion of Optogan on a global scale. Optogan is a manufacturer of LED components, LED lamps and LED luminaires. The company was established in Finland in 2004, and was acquired in 2008 by Onexim, a Russian financial group.
Monocrystal decides against IPO
Russia also has a leading supplier of sapphire crystals in Stavropol-based Monocrystal, Inc. The company, a subsidiary of Energomera, appointed Oleg Kachalov as its new CEO in June this year. The company recently postponed its planned IPO, citing volatility in global equity markets and other factors. "We remain very confident in the strength of our business," said Kachalov. "We are able to finance our 2010-2011 business growth plans from internal source, however, we may consider returning to the equity market at a future date when conditions become more favorable."
Summary
The LED lighting industry in Russia is becoming more mature as the country seeks to develop a vertically-integrated manufacturing infrastructure. There would be enormous opportunity for investor for LED.
China has a Lowest CDI of 4.6% amongst these BRiC Countries: Brazil 4.7%, Russian 7%, India 9.9%.
China Q3 GDP increasing by 10.6% as compared with the same Quarter 09, a healthy Growth.
China National Energy Policy has not been changed so far, quite different as cooling action on the overheated real estate economy. The LED Energy Derivatives are still of the major energy strategic plan for China at least next 4-7 years.
LED TV BLU has been slowing down for a couple of months and will be recovering gradually, even the worse case scenario is BLU business goes down due to minimizing the number of LED per TV set, and tricky low end LED TV maker to use a few LED unit on TV as sales gadget rather than to use it for Picture quality. These LED packagers will do their best to convert the Bonder for General Light Business if their price is not competitive enough.
General Lighting market
From the analyses in the General Lighting market we can see that the growth is high, starting for less than 0.1% of the LED for General Market in 2009, this interprets that it is a huge market potential for coming future. See most of the Customers in Russia Northern China, they are having more than 80% going for General Lighting products. Though there is a lot of Propagation Attack on the failure of the Solid State LED street lamps, the adoption rate is low and the price of LED lighting fixture is still expensive… These are the prime market drivers for us to work on.
Overall opinion, the LED market will continue to be hot as 2010 in 2011.
Feverip
31 Oct 2010
Partly de to the stock level of CCFL Back light was still high, partly CCFL supplier offers lot price attraction for us. We estimate that it will be consuming all stock of CFL by End Dec, in Q1 2011, we believe that the back light LED marker will start to run the LED production in much larger scale. Since the number of LED on each of the LED TV is about 200 for 42” TV. There is a keen reduction (100%) in the number of LED in each of the LED TV especially the Samsung, LGI, etc. The overall market for 2010 on LED is sill strong, not as the major analysis expects 50%, probably around 30%.
Though we know that someone forecasts 2011 would be as high as 50%. That would be a lot still, but do not forget that the figure will be affect by the economy of the area, and the equipment purchase would likely be happened if they have used up all their capacity.
CCFL flight back
With the CCFL flight back with an attractive price as leverage, original LED TV penetration expectation was 30% for 2010. According to Unity Opto ‘s forecast the new penetration rate is 15%-20% for 2010.
Whereas Epistar forecast will be to 20% to 25%. However Epistar would be optimistic for 2011 as Korean would be trigger launch of new model with more attractive features, and at Same Time China will be a big marker demand for LED TV. He is very optimistic to see that all year penetration rate will be touching 40% in 2011.
LED TV Market 2011
The European market would be having another 6% growth for 2011 as comparing with that of 2010. Whereas US may have a light growth of 1-2% only as they have been Saturated with the LED TV shipment typical supplied by Vizio and Samsung. China would the market supporter for LED TV as partly due to the special incentive scheme for TV in rural side, and partly China as to support the consumer electronics segment partly to support the GDP index growth, and partly to maintain the employment of a large work force.
7th Sept, Mr. Zhang Xue Bin, Executive Chairman and CEO of Skyworth, China’s 4th Largest LCD TV makers told to the Hong Kong media and investors that during the April-May LCD TV old stock purging action by selling at a low price. After World Club came to an end we had slash of the TV sales unless there is new stimulus campaign. Skyworth’s CFO said that In China, there are approximately 600M sets of LCD TV what had been servicing for 5-6 years. There is a necessity and need for replacement with by new LCD TVs, amongst these 600 Millions sets, there is at least 48 Millions to 72M sets of them would go for LED Backlight units. These actions of new TV purchase will not stop for next 12 months!
I believe that the Big Players like Samsung, LGE, Sony, Toshiba and Chinese band like Hisense, TCL, Konka and Skyworth, Changhong will carry on shipping out more cost effective LCD TV or a low-Cost-Version TV Before Chinese New year 2011.
TV Sales Gadget
The problem lies in the consumption of the CCFL BLU TV first, it would still have to take 8-10 weeks to absorb this inventory, so there is also a possible trick of selling CCFL BLU with mixed of LED BLU… to tell the consumer, THIS IS LED TV.. Selling at a higher price..nother way to push for more sales revenus is to put LED in one bar or fore concern of the screen, this would be workable for small screen size TVC such as 27” to 37” TV Set.
The purpose is to enlarge the coverage of the LED TV portfolio. Next year, I think the sales if the LED TV would move up to another heights of record as more 3D featured TV and Smart TV will be available, Smart TV to be the home entertainment centre for some of the technology lovers. LED TV cost will be lowered by another 25%-30% as we can buy now. Brighter with lesser LED be more effective light transmission would be the main stream, that will be the evergreen product as a result of the latest LED technology with least power consumption, mercury free and reasonable beautiful picture quality.
An era for LED truly penetration of 40% could be found across all sized… with 32”-40” will be the most popular size as an average.
Base on the market survey we had, there will be more or less an additional 30% as of this years demand on LED for BLU.
Hong Kong LED Light Bulb
We have been using LED light bulb at home for the sake of social conscience and caring of the environment, and as a way to perform the energy harvest. In the two years, the retail selling price is kept on dropping at rate of less 30% a year. A 3W K2 x3 type LED was HKD$330 three years ago, and Now we can get it at about HKD$80.00.
That was the similar as what we could se in HK in the past two years Today I saw the place where I am living are changing all the CFL light bulbs in to the 7W LED at the garden walking path form MTR to each of the buildings. This is a first time happened to see LED being immigrated into one of the largest residential estates.
Japan SSL Market
This is the fastest blooming market for LED replacement light bulb business, reason is mainly due to geographic and historical reason, Japan is intricately lack of any energy resources, they have to struggle for energy harvest. Under such a high living standard county the price of CLF is not low at all, Why not switch to LED! In Akihabara beginning of the year able to see various supply of LED replacement Light bulb in the market, Panasonic, Toshiba Litetech, Sharp and Citizen made LED, light bulb, the price was 4,000 Yen Jan 2010, but now It is just about 2,500 Yen for the same type same model.. That is a significant price drop about 37% in a year!
Japan LED bulb design
Form what we know from the three major supplier for LED bulbs, there is common packaging method by employing a lot of LED 20-168 LEDs in a light bulb. Most f them a low power LED.
Reason is three folds:
1. They would like to go for better heat distribution as the area of contact is much bigger.
2. The smaller the chip size the higher the LED emission efficacy. A small chip of 16x18 mil 0.3W led can have an efficacy of 36%. Where is a 100mil x 100mil Power chip does have 26% only.
3. And there is input that Nichia bought a lot of MOCOV for 3 inch diameter afer. so they have no way but go for smaller chip size.
US and EU LED Package design
Cree, Lumileds, Osram are going for Bigger chip approach. Thus is their strength ad they can have a better chip design, one chip says it all. No matter Ostar, Oslon, Rebel square, XP, Multichip approaches.
The Big Five Movement on Lighting
Nichia is still using their approach of Multi chip format.
Cree is doing more on Lighting, after MacDonal, Star Buck, Burger King, Wart mart and Costco. Cree is working on project with bigger shopping malls, fast food chains in USA for their Lighting LEDs. They have the chip level phosphor application.
Osram is traditional Automobile business model. It is wise to diversify their LED segmentation for more BLU and General Lighting.
Lumileds Rebel it self is a versatile product, no matter BLU, Lighting, general lighting are using the similar package. Their LED is moving into a binning free process, meaning that they will have a better process control on their characteristic on their Lumiramic process such that the binning is minimized down the road.
General Illumination LED for Tunnel
Xi’an Liming, which is one of China’s largest suppliers of outdoor LED lighting as well as manufacturing LED tunnel lighting, worked with the engineering team at Future Lighting Solutions to ensure that the fixtures would meet national tunnel lighting standards as well as have a sustainable LED supply.
The fixtures are providing illumination for the Xinkailing and Wang Zhu Yuan No. 2 tunnels of the Liu’an-to-Wuhan highway, a north-south extension of the Shanghai-to-Wu Wei main line ( one of the country’s key east-west arteries). Running the entire 4.7km (2.9 mile) combined length of the two tunnels, the lighting was a joint project of Xi’an Liming and the Anhui Province Huan Yu Highway Construction Development Co Ltd.
Each 50W and 100W tunnel lamp contains 42 and 72 LUXEON Rebel LEDs, respectively. Each Tunnel of 1Km will use up approximately 1,000 Lamp and each will have 72 Rebel, a tunnel of 5KM will have 360,000 LED…Do not forget There are thousands tunnels in China. So this will be another big portion for their product revenue growth. Similarity, Osram Opto Semiconductors’ Golden Dragon Oval Plus LEDs are being utilized to illuminate the Shanghai Ren Min Road Tunnel and Guangzhou Zhu Jiang New City. Each of the installations used around 30,000 Golden Dragon Oval Plus LEDs from Osram Opto Semiconductors. A Tunnel will contribute approx. half RMB millions of LEDs and another half million for associated electronics.
Note that so far, Only High quality LED such as Osram Gold Dragon Oval and Rebel can be used for Tunnel as we can not allow fany failure of the LED. It is hard to replace the LED light bulb in case of Failure…
LED market in Russia Expansion
Although in recent years the Russian LED market has been characterized by a lack of standardization, a lack of a transparent pricing policy, and low product quality, this situation is changing rapidly. State funding and investment from private companies is helping to build a domestic LED infrastructure and, all over Russia, companies dedicated to LED lighting technologies are emerging.
The Russian state is playing a major role in the development of the domestic Russian LED market. In March 2010 the Presidential Commission for Modernization announced that the transition from incandescent bulbs to energy-efficient lighting devices will not take place by implementing energy-efficient saving lamps (CFLs), but by converting to LEDs directly. The State has also decided to introduce, at short notice, new standards for LED lighting technologies.
There is a strong political willingness to establish LED lighting technologies within the Russian market, and capital investors including private bank and government investor are helping to establish a domestic Russian LED production capability. Currently, Russia imports 98 % of its LED lighting, but this situation will change as domestic suppliers become better established. Meanwhile, Russia’s biggest companies, such as Russian Railways Corporation and Gazprom, are among the largest consumers of LED technology.
Further, the newly-founded Non-Profit Association of Russian LED Manufacturers, which has been established by competitive suppliers Optogan and Svetlana Optoelectronics, is likely to play an important role in the consolidation of the Russian LED lighting market;
Characteristic of Russian LED factories in previous the state owned factory has been manufacturing LED about 20 years ago, surprising to see that their facilities are still more or less the same as 20 years ago. Looking at another angle, Former USSR had an advanced technology on LED and Microelectronics. All they need are certain standardization on equipment and process.
Optogan expands production
As evidence of the growing LED infrastructure in Russia, the St. Petersburg-based company CJSC Optogan recently placed an order with Aixtron for two MOCVD systems for GaN-based LED growth. The St. Petersburg facility was acquired by Optogan from Elcoteq, a global electronics manufacturing services (EMS) company, in May 2010.
Also, Optogan recently appointed Markus Zeiler, a former Osram employee, to oversee the expansion of Optogan on a global scale. Optogan is a manufacturer of LED components, LED lamps and LED luminaires. The company was established in Finland in 2004, and was acquired in 2008 by Onexim, a Russian financial group.
Monocrystal decides against IPO
Russia also has a leading supplier of sapphire crystals in Stavropol-based Monocrystal, Inc. The company, a subsidiary of Energomera, appointed Oleg Kachalov as its new CEO in June this year. The company recently postponed its planned IPO, citing volatility in global equity markets and other factors. "We remain very confident in the strength of our business," said Kachalov. "We are able to finance our 2010-2011 business growth plans from internal source, however, we may consider returning to the equity market at a future date when conditions become more favorable."
Summary
The LED lighting industry in Russia is becoming more mature as the country seeks to develop a vertically-integrated manufacturing infrastructure. There would be enormous opportunity for investor for LED.
China has a Lowest CDI of 4.6% amongst these BRiC Countries: Brazil 4.7%, Russian 7%, India 9.9%.
China Q3 GDP increasing by 10.6% as compared with the same Quarter 09, a healthy Growth.
China National Energy Policy has not been changed so far, quite different as cooling action on the overheated real estate economy. The LED Energy Derivatives are still of the major energy strategic plan for China at least next 4-7 years.
LED TV BLU has been slowing down for a couple of months and will be recovering gradually, even the worse case scenario is BLU business goes down due to minimizing the number of LED per TV set, and tricky low end LED TV maker to use a few LED unit on TV as sales gadget rather than to use it for Picture quality. These LED packagers will do their best to convert the Bonder for General Light Business if their price is not competitive enough.
General Lighting market
From the analyses in the General Lighting market we can see that the growth is high, starting for less than 0.1% of the LED for General Market in 2009, this interprets that it is a huge market potential for coming future. See most of the Customers in Russia Northern China, they are having more than 80% going for General Lighting products. Though there is a lot of Propagation Attack on the failure of the Solid State LED street lamps, the adoption rate is low and the price of LED lighting fixture is still expensive… These are the prime market drivers for us to work on.
Overall opinion, the LED market will continue to be hot as 2010 in 2011.
Feverip
31 Oct 2010
Sunday, August 15, 2010
China and Russia LED Status and Opportunity
The light-emitting diode (LED) is one of the semiconductor device, which can turn electrical energy into luminous energy and emit visible light in various colors, such as Amber, green, blue, as well as invisible light, such as infrared and ultraviolet light. Compared with incandescent bulb and the neon lamp, light-emitting diodes are specially characterized with low operating voltage down to a few volts and electric current as smaller as couple hundredth of an Ampere. Highly reliable as its life time an be as good as 50,000 hours and much lower in the performance degrade over the years.
The entry barriers of the light-emitting diode (LED) industry from the upstream to the downstream are being removed gradually over the year. The upstream industry includes mono-crystalline chip and the epitaxial wafer growth while the middle stream industry is mainly in chip processing such as probing, LED sorting, and the downstream process handles packaging, Singulation, testing, sorting and final packing.
The upstream and middle stream process have higher technical requirement and involving heavy investments. In the industrial food chain of light-emitting diode, epitaxial wafer and chip account for about 60% of cost of the finished LED products, and the packaging material and process accounts for 35% percent, remaining 5% is the packing cost.
Under global warning threat, energy shortage concern, environmental protection caring, the LED lighting which is long life span, efficient performance, safe and environmental friendly, abundant colors and microminiaturization, has been recognized as the ultimate source for energy saving lighting in the world.
The LED as the new lighting source, only run up one tenth of the electricity compared with the ordinary incandescent lamps and the performance can be postponed ten folds at the same brightness. In 2007, the total amount of the global LED market exceeded US 6 billion, up by almost 14% over the previous year. During 2006 to 2012, the annual compound growth rate of the global light-emitting diode market will reach 10%, most of which will mainly be contributed by the ultra high and high brightness light-emitting diodes (HBLED, UHLED).
The global LED industry is mainly found in America, Japan, Taiwan, Europe, South Korea, China, etc. Japan, the largest producer of LED in the world, holds 50% of the market share. Nichia Corporation is the world’s largest provider of the high-brightness light-emitting diodes. Toyoda Gosei Co., Ltd is the world’s fourth largest and Japanese is the second largest manufacturer of the LEDs. Osram Opto, with Headquarters located Regensburg of Germany, is the world’s second largest and European largest manufacturer of the high-brightness light-emitting diodes.
Taiwan, the global production base of the consumption electronic products, is mainly engaged in the production of the visible light-emitting diodes. Taiwan is also the world’s largest downstream packaging and middle stream chip production base. Korea, typically represented by Samsung, LGE and Lumen, is a new emerging player in these two years due to their internal drive for huge volume of Back light LEDs for the LCD TV.
With more than 30 years of LED development, Chinese LED industry has formed the basically complete industrial chains, covering the LED inside, epitaxial wafer, chip package and application. At present, China has over 700 LED enterprises specializing in the downstream packaging and application. However, there is only about 10 companies engaged in the production of the epitaxial wafer for LED, led by SanAn optoelectronics Xiamen, Silan Azure Hangzhou, Inspur Huaguang Shan Dong, Lumei optoelectronics Dalian, Changelight Xiamen.
Starting from Vertical LED for some limited application fro Display in the instruments of cockpit of an aircraft in 30 years ago, a LED was selling at USD$3.0 dollars until the big four LED manufacturer pioneers Liteon, Ever Light, King Bright and LEDtech of Taiwan converted from manual LED process into Automation with the support of the ASM, LED equipment supplier with major operations in Hong Kong and Singapore.
With technological improvement of the luminous efficiency and application technologies, the application of the LED has been transferred from the initial indicator lights to screens, backlight, automobile lights, traffic lights, signboard etc. It is predicted that the average compound growth rate of sales of the light-emitting diodes will be above 19% in 2007 to 2014 and the annual average compound growth rate of sales of the landscape lighting and signboards will reach over 35%. The annual average compound growth rate of sales of the backlight LED at more than 30% from 2009-2012.
In 2010, when many patents in the LED industry would expire. Chinese companies are expected to break through the shackles of the intellectual property rights from American, European, and Japanese giants. With the China Local government subsidize at least 70% of the cost, or US$1.5 million on average for each purchase of a MOCVD. And numerous Land space and electricity incentive support to the major LED makers. That will be a spring board for providing extra vibrant for China LED manufacturers to pursue it to be the World No. 1 LED manufacturing company in terms of Sales Revenue in the coming three years.
Russia, on the other hand is not new for LED, they have been involving the LED research and development in the 60s, and they had an early successful light up of a Blue LED chip 10 years before Shuji Nakamura did it in 1993... Of course the life span and the light intensity is not able to comparing Shuji’s LED!! The Country is rich resources with oil and gas and in fact they electricity is not as expensive as Germany USA or Japan. Currently 1000KV/Hr of Electricity is rated for 3.5 Robles. (USD$0.166). However they have concern for the environment as they know that the mercury is coming with CFLs. The Russian Ministry of Economy Development has recently announced that starting from 2011 they would start to ban the sales for Incandescent light bulb, and to prohibit the sales of 75W or more incandescent light bulbs in 2011. Till 2014, no one can be allowed to sell Incandescent light bulb anymore.
The CFL production capacity is inadequate and price is high, Russia is now trying to build CFL factories with minimum annual shipment of 200M pieces. The sales of CLF is about 50M pieces almost relying on import. That the price is approx 140-300 Robles (USD$4.60 to USD$10.00 ) which is almost 2 to 5 times more expensive than those we can get in USA. On the other hand, we can see that there are thousands of building was over 100 years old in Moscow, the ceiling is high and that is expensive to change the light bulb when the fails. LED is the suggestion for replacing the Incandescent lamp.
Local Cities are moving forward progressively, Moscow, being a model itself to push forward for going for green product, starting 1st of Oct 2010, Moscow will not purchase incandescent light bulbs nor any other uncompromising illumination device meeting their energy saving requirement.
Starting 2007 June Moscow government advised to go for green programme to the enterprises, offering a generous 50% incentive support to that enterprise that can reduce emission. Up to now, there are many companies who has granted with the subsidizing programme. Now a lot of LED companies is being supported by Russian Government for LED manufacturing. And the trend for Russia is to Move from Incandescent directly into LED, skipping the CFL…
The LED would be a big energy saving programme in both China and Russia in the coming 10 years. Partly as they are being driven for adoption and being supported by the government. Let's watch out and capture the opportunity for supporting them with total LED solution.
Feverip
The entry barriers of the light-emitting diode (LED) industry from the upstream to the downstream are being removed gradually over the year. The upstream industry includes mono-crystalline chip and the epitaxial wafer growth while the middle stream industry is mainly in chip processing such as probing, LED sorting, and the downstream process handles packaging, Singulation, testing, sorting and final packing.
The upstream and middle stream process have higher technical requirement and involving heavy investments. In the industrial food chain of light-emitting diode, epitaxial wafer and chip account for about 60% of cost of the finished LED products, and the packaging material and process accounts for 35% percent, remaining 5% is the packing cost.
Under global warning threat, energy shortage concern, environmental protection caring, the LED lighting which is long life span, efficient performance, safe and environmental friendly, abundant colors and microminiaturization, has been recognized as the ultimate source for energy saving lighting in the world.
The LED as the new lighting source, only run up one tenth of the electricity compared with the ordinary incandescent lamps and the performance can be postponed ten folds at the same brightness. In 2007, the total amount of the global LED market exceeded US 6 billion, up by almost 14% over the previous year. During 2006 to 2012, the annual compound growth rate of the global light-emitting diode market will reach 10%, most of which will mainly be contributed by the ultra high and high brightness light-emitting diodes (HBLED, UHLED).
The global LED industry is mainly found in America, Japan, Taiwan, Europe, South Korea, China, etc. Japan, the largest producer of LED in the world, holds 50% of the market share. Nichia Corporation is the world’s largest provider of the high-brightness light-emitting diodes. Toyoda Gosei Co., Ltd is the world’s fourth largest and Japanese is the second largest manufacturer of the LEDs. Osram Opto, with Headquarters located Regensburg of Germany, is the world’s second largest and European largest manufacturer of the high-brightness light-emitting diodes.
Taiwan, the global production base of the consumption electronic products, is mainly engaged in the production of the visible light-emitting diodes. Taiwan is also the world’s largest downstream packaging and middle stream chip production base. Korea, typically represented by Samsung, LGE and Lumen, is a new emerging player in these two years due to their internal drive for huge volume of Back light LEDs for the LCD TV.
With more than 30 years of LED development, Chinese LED industry has formed the basically complete industrial chains, covering the LED inside, epitaxial wafer, chip package and application. At present, China has over 700 LED enterprises specializing in the downstream packaging and application. However, there is only about 10 companies engaged in the production of the epitaxial wafer for LED, led by SanAn optoelectronics Xiamen, Silan Azure Hangzhou, Inspur Huaguang Shan Dong, Lumei optoelectronics Dalian, Changelight Xiamen.
Starting from Vertical LED for some limited application fro Display in the instruments of cockpit of an aircraft in 30 years ago, a LED was selling at USD$3.0 dollars until the big four LED manufacturer pioneers Liteon, Ever Light, King Bright and LEDtech of Taiwan converted from manual LED process into Automation with the support of the ASM, LED equipment supplier with major operations in Hong Kong and Singapore.
With technological improvement of the luminous efficiency and application technologies, the application of the LED has been transferred from the initial indicator lights to screens, backlight, automobile lights, traffic lights, signboard etc. It is predicted that the average compound growth rate of sales of the light-emitting diodes will be above 19% in 2007 to 2014 and the annual average compound growth rate of sales of the landscape lighting and signboards will reach over 35%. The annual average compound growth rate of sales of the backlight LED at more than 30% from 2009-2012.
In 2010, when many patents in the LED industry would expire. Chinese companies are expected to break through the shackles of the intellectual property rights from American, European, and Japanese giants. With the China Local government subsidize at least 70% of the cost, or US$1.5 million on average for each purchase of a MOCVD. And numerous Land space and electricity incentive support to the major LED makers. That will be a spring board for providing extra vibrant for China LED manufacturers to pursue it to be the World No. 1 LED manufacturing company in terms of Sales Revenue in the coming three years.
Russia, on the other hand is not new for LED, they have been involving the LED research and development in the 60s, and they had an early successful light up of a Blue LED chip 10 years before Shuji Nakamura did it in 1993... Of course the life span and the light intensity is not able to comparing Shuji’s LED!! The Country is rich resources with oil and gas and in fact they electricity is not as expensive as Germany USA or Japan. Currently 1000KV/Hr of Electricity is rated for 3.5 Robles. (USD$0.166). However they have concern for the environment as they know that the mercury is coming with CFLs. The Russian Ministry of Economy Development has recently announced that starting from 2011 they would start to ban the sales for Incandescent light bulb, and to prohibit the sales of 75W or more incandescent light bulbs in 2011. Till 2014, no one can be allowed to sell Incandescent light bulb anymore.
The CFL production capacity is inadequate and price is high, Russia is now trying to build CFL factories with minimum annual shipment of 200M pieces. The sales of CLF is about 50M pieces almost relying on import. That the price is approx 140-300 Robles (USD$4.60 to USD$10.00 ) which is almost 2 to 5 times more expensive than those we can get in USA. On the other hand, we can see that there are thousands of building was over 100 years old in Moscow, the ceiling is high and that is expensive to change the light bulb when the fails. LED is the suggestion for replacing the Incandescent lamp.
Local Cities are moving forward progressively, Moscow, being a model itself to push forward for going for green product, starting 1st of Oct 2010, Moscow will not purchase incandescent light bulbs nor any other uncompromising illumination device meeting their energy saving requirement.
Starting 2007 June Moscow government advised to go for green programme to the enterprises, offering a generous 50% incentive support to that enterprise that can reduce emission. Up to now, there are many companies who has granted with the subsidizing programme. Now a lot of LED companies is being supported by Russian Government for LED manufacturing. And the trend for Russia is to Move from Incandescent directly into LED, skipping the CFL…
The LED would be a big energy saving programme in both China and Russia in the coming 10 years. Partly as they are being driven for adoption and being supported by the government. Let's watch out and capture the opportunity for supporting them with total LED solution.
Feverip
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
What should we do about LED in 2010-2015?
Some people would have argued that it's been a tough time since 15 Sep 2008 till recently that we see some signs of rebound on IC. Most IC business experts agree that things have changed forever. However, as we have said in the past, change is neither intrinsically good nor bad in all cases. It is almost always an opportunity and that is certainly true for the future semiconductor industry! Recalling 2009, especially 1H, I think of how close we were to economic Armageddon in the last one year. For far too long, the global economy has rewarded short-termism.
2010 is about maintaining our Bull’s-eye on being good wealth God has given us. We face exciting challenges of being a global company, ingenuity and discipline is needed to ensure synergy and cross-fertilization between our operations locally and abroad, marketing through production, engineering and R&D development, Sales and Service.
2009 Samsung LED TV Inspiration
Marketing studies is essential and influential for our future product planning. The product launch timing is essential as what I learnt from Samsung on their LED TV programme, as reflected in “Samsung and Sony”, knowing that the best selling Electronics stuff is like Sashimi in Sushi bar, has to be kept Fresh and it is able to be sold expensively.
From Clayton M. Christensen’s “The Innovator’s Dilemma”, we learnt from Conner Peripherals, which pioneered and maintained the lead in selling 3.5” drives to portable computer makers, fundamentally changed the way drive makers had to approach the portables marker, as one Conner Executives described it. : from the beginning of the OEM disk driver industry, product development had proceeded in three sequential steps, First you design the drive then you make it; and then you sell it, They changed it all. They first sell the drives; then they design them. And then they build them. Whereas Seagate was never able to figure out how to sell drives on the portable market, they just never got it!
Business Forecast for 2010
We are at the beginning of a long and slow recovery in production of most regions and industries. Production and consumer declines reached lows in mid 2009. Financial crisis revealed excess physical capital for underlying demand. We're in a long adjustment period, to repair and rebalance the global economic system. Low interest rates, monetary policy, bank rescue packages, massive fiscal stimulus packages, relatively low commodity prices, inventory correction cycle over, and a slow build up of pent-up demand are the main economic drivers.
With the Worldwide GDP is expected to hit 2.7 in 2010, compared to minus 2.1 in 2009. The worldwide industrial production index is expected to reach 3.5 in 2010, compared to minus 10 in 2009! Regional recovery differences may be sharp. Asia grows, led by China, India; Japan lags North America modest gains on relatively weaker consumer spending. Europe protracted weakness.
Slow recovery in U.S. computer growth, PC spending momentum turned positive in October 2009. (2009 growth: minus 11.1 percent; 2010: plus 1.6 percent; 2011: plus 6.3 percent).
So as a summary, we should have a positive speculation on 2010 that should be a good year for all electronics and consumer business. LCD BLU will be the dominant player in term of revenue and growth. The shipment of LED BLU LCD TV will be in the range for approx. 10% ( my number) as penetration rate for all TV.
In 2009, the total number of shipment is only 2.9% which is approximately 2.7M sets. That is 3 times in terms of growth. Laptop will be using almost 100% LED as the LCD TV BLU. Total number of LED required is approx 19B pcs.
LED in this period will be obviously, explosively growing!
LED for general Lighting obviously, explosively growing, but a milder explosion
Forecast 2010-2015
The total New car sales in 2009 was 13,648,000 with an annual Growth of 46% over the year 2008. That number has outperformed USA. China now is the world largest market for Car.
World largest Shipment broker Clarkson latest data tells us that China has gained total 3,490,000 Tons CGT that is 44.4% of the world total tonnage, over taken Hyundai heavy industry as the World Largest Ship building industry.
By our forecast by, 2020, China will be the World largest Consumer market that will surpass USA as the World No. 1 Consumer market.
From 2010 to 2015, we will see China a tremendous growth of Economy, Hong Kong, being an important Southern Window, spring board into China as Asian office Head quarters, central management office for Logistics and Finance. Provided if there are less political chaos or minimum China political influence, Hong Kong should be one of the major beneficiate for the economics.
9 hot applications in 2010
1. LED Backlight LCD TV
2. LED for general illumination as stepping stone into SSL
3. SSL
4. E-book ,Touchy subjects: screens for portables
5. Solar Energy application
6. Roll to Roll technology
7. Picoprojectors,
8. Health care product- More people affording to pay more for medical care product
9. Android Invasion
The 10 technologies to watch out.
1. Biofeedback or thought-control of electronics
2. Printed electronics and jetting technology
3. Plastic memory
4. Maskless lithography
5. Parallel processing
6. Energy harvesting
7. Bio-electronics and wetware
8. Resistive RAM or the memristor
9. The through-silicon via
10. Various new battery technologies.
MEMS, OLED and 3DTV
I would not speculate MEMS, OLED & 3DTV will become dominant attraction in the 3-5 years. As MEMS is more or less an individual product design and some how IP will tie up their patent not allow others to copy, also their are similar kind of MEMS can be of replacement consideration.
OLED will be only gaining market size on small hand held display less than 7” dia. There will be another 10 years for LCD TV to survive before the OLED technology can overtake LCD with cost and good yield on larger screen up to TV..
3D TV will have to struggle for a number of years for industrial standardization. 3D TV will likely be a resurgence of laser-projection TVs! This is more or less he Betamax and VHS in 1980 that would not come to a hit until a commercialization occupancy could kick off this programme with commercial driving benefit.
LED BLU
LED BLU will be an explosive growth in 2010-2014 and this BLU is actually a stepping-stone to SSL. We can not ignore the Flash & Projection in mobile phones & cameras for the next 5 yrs. Like PicoProjector has become a product of its own and it may go for total 3 Million sets for sales in 2010.
What shall we do in 2010-2015?
Mid-term there's a big triangular constellation out there - that's the combination of Solar, Storage & SSL. Somehow the 'missing link' is the Storage (battery and new battery technology with good efficiency and more environmental friendly) technology - that's a must for true "Autarkic Systems" to work.
BLU migrating into SSL technology
This is the first time in the History of business that you can be great at what you’re re doing today and be out of business tomorrow.
Ken Benchard
We know that as SSL develops and Solar prices stabilize then the constellation will come together... that may be happening in year 2014. Hopefully we can well prepare in advance for the technology.
As for long term the SSL will become more in penetration in the market and ASP will drop 15% per year….
The HBLED market grow will be resumed in 2010 and a CAGR of 19.3% till 2013 with revenue of $12.4B. 2010-2015.
The LED illumination market in architectural applications is domi¬nated by early adopters. Less than 5% of the potential architectural applications being specified in 2006 used LED fixtures. Around 9% in 2007, 14% in 2008, by 2012, Estimated almost 25% of the potential applications will have converted to LEDs. Though I think this figure is a bit too optimistic.
We can see that there were no LED replacement bulbs in the HK market in 2008. Now you can find more shops are promoting and selling them. It is becoming a momentum to start and soon becoming a bigger market that only takes a couple of years. When you can see LED replacement tight bulb in Welcome and Park’n. That will be the time. I foresee that base on what we are working on, we can have such branded 7W LED light bulbs selling At USD$5.00 to USD$8.00 in 2011.
The reason why we can not have more cost effective LED light bulb available in the market is partly due to the Efficiency of LED is still far below our expectation of 60% plus the volume of the LED is not able to keep the ASP down below a X2 value formula ( Price of LED light bulb to be 3X or less than incandescent lamp)
Incandescent lamp is having Luminous Efficacy of 0.7%-5.1% depending on the design and wattage of the light bulb, Fluorescent light is having a much high efficiency such as 9-26W compact Fluorescent lamp is 9-11%. However, LED is in the range of 20-27% which is two times higher. Well, the technology is non-stopping, thousands of scientists are seeking on numerous way to increasing the lighting Luminous efficiency by employing the following improvement. The target of more than 60% is not a dream one day as we can see that there is huge R&D team has been working on.
What should do as for long term action
We may go into a stragety and look for opportunity for these technology Packaging technology
-Novel Process
-Thermal management
-Lead frame material
-CTE balance
-Phosphor spraying
-Phosphor application
-Material Studies
-Phosphor efficiency
-Chip Design and Chip material
-AC LED design
-Driver design and power supply
Wish List
Hope that we can manage to create more innovation on LED assembly cost reduction. More National stimulus programme to support Green LED development, More Chip maker and LED packaging team can reduce the cost of a 1W LED to less than USD$0.20. Then we can see that your and my houses are prone to be using all LED as the Solid State Lighting!
feverip
2010 is about maintaining our Bull’s-eye on being good wealth God has given us. We face exciting challenges of being a global company, ingenuity and discipline is needed to ensure synergy and cross-fertilization between our operations locally and abroad, marketing through production, engineering and R&D development, Sales and Service.
2009 Samsung LED TV Inspiration
Marketing studies is essential and influential for our future product planning. The product launch timing is essential as what I learnt from Samsung on their LED TV programme, as reflected in “Samsung and Sony”, knowing that the best selling Electronics stuff is like Sashimi in Sushi bar, has to be kept Fresh and it is able to be sold expensively.
From Clayton M. Christensen’s “The Innovator’s Dilemma”, we learnt from Conner Peripherals, which pioneered and maintained the lead in selling 3.5” drives to portable computer makers, fundamentally changed the way drive makers had to approach the portables marker, as one Conner Executives described it. : from the beginning of the OEM disk driver industry, product development had proceeded in three sequential steps, First you design the drive then you make it; and then you sell it, They changed it all. They first sell the drives; then they design them. And then they build them. Whereas Seagate was never able to figure out how to sell drives on the portable market, they just never got it!
Business Forecast for 2010
We are at the beginning of a long and slow recovery in production of most regions and industries. Production and consumer declines reached lows in mid 2009. Financial crisis revealed excess physical capital for underlying demand. We're in a long adjustment period, to repair and rebalance the global economic system. Low interest rates, monetary policy, bank rescue packages, massive fiscal stimulus packages, relatively low commodity prices, inventory correction cycle over, and a slow build up of pent-up demand are the main economic drivers.
With the Worldwide GDP is expected to hit 2.7 in 2010, compared to minus 2.1 in 2009. The worldwide industrial production index is expected to reach 3.5 in 2010, compared to minus 10 in 2009! Regional recovery differences may be sharp. Asia grows, led by China, India; Japan lags North America modest gains on relatively weaker consumer spending. Europe protracted weakness.
Slow recovery in U.S. computer growth, PC spending momentum turned positive in October 2009. (2009 growth: minus 11.1 percent; 2010: plus 1.6 percent; 2011: plus 6.3 percent).
So as a summary, we should have a positive speculation on 2010 that should be a good year for all electronics and consumer business. LCD BLU will be the dominant player in term of revenue and growth. The shipment of LED BLU LCD TV will be in the range for approx. 10% ( my number) as penetration rate for all TV.
In 2009, the total number of shipment is only 2.9% which is approximately 2.7M sets. That is 3 times in terms of growth. Laptop will be using almost 100% LED as the LCD TV BLU. Total number of LED required is approx 19B pcs.
LED in this period will be obviously, explosively growing!
LED for general Lighting obviously, explosively growing, but a milder explosion
Forecast 2010-2015
The total New car sales in 2009 was 13,648,000 with an annual Growth of 46% over the year 2008. That number has outperformed USA. China now is the world largest market for Car.
World largest Shipment broker Clarkson latest data tells us that China has gained total 3,490,000 Tons CGT that is 44.4% of the world total tonnage, over taken Hyundai heavy industry as the World Largest Ship building industry.
By our forecast by, 2020, China will be the World largest Consumer market that will surpass USA as the World No. 1 Consumer market.
From 2010 to 2015, we will see China a tremendous growth of Economy, Hong Kong, being an important Southern Window, spring board into China as Asian office Head quarters, central management office for Logistics and Finance. Provided if there are less political chaos or minimum China political influence, Hong Kong should be one of the major beneficiate for the economics.
9 hot applications in 2010
1. LED Backlight LCD TV
2. LED for general illumination as stepping stone into SSL
3. SSL
4. E-book ,Touchy subjects: screens for portables
5. Solar Energy application
6. Roll to Roll technology
7. Picoprojectors,
8. Health care product- More people affording to pay more for medical care product
9. Android Invasion
The 10 technologies to watch out.
1. Biofeedback or thought-control of electronics
2. Printed electronics and jetting technology
3. Plastic memory
4. Maskless lithography
5. Parallel processing
6. Energy harvesting
7. Bio-electronics and wetware
8. Resistive RAM or the memristor
9. The through-silicon via
10. Various new battery technologies.
MEMS, OLED and 3DTV
I would not speculate MEMS, OLED & 3DTV will become dominant attraction in the 3-5 years. As MEMS is more or less an individual product design and some how IP will tie up their patent not allow others to copy, also their are similar kind of MEMS can be of replacement consideration.
OLED will be only gaining market size on small hand held display less than 7” dia. There will be another 10 years for LCD TV to survive before the OLED technology can overtake LCD with cost and good yield on larger screen up to TV..
3D TV will have to struggle for a number of years for industrial standardization. 3D TV will likely be a resurgence of laser-projection TVs! This is more or less he Betamax and VHS in 1980 that would not come to a hit until a commercialization occupancy could kick off this programme with commercial driving benefit.
LED BLU
LED BLU will be an explosive growth in 2010-2014 and this BLU is actually a stepping-stone to SSL. We can not ignore the Flash & Projection in mobile phones & cameras for the next 5 yrs. Like PicoProjector has become a product of its own and it may go for total 3 Million sets for sales in 2010.
What shall we do in 2010-2015?
Mid-term there's a big triangular constellation out there - that's the combination of Solar, Storage & SSL. Somehow the 'missing link' is the Storage (battery and new battery technology with good efficiency and more environmental friendly) technology - that's a must for true "Autarkic Systems" to work.
BLU migrating into SSL technology
This is the first time in the History of business that you can be great at what you’re re doing today and be out of business tomorrow.
Ken Benchard
We know that as SSL develops and Solar prices stabilize then the constellation will come together... that may be happening in year 2014. Hopefully we can well prepare in advance for the technology.
As for long term the SSL will become more in penetration in the market and ASP will drop 15% per year….
The HBLED market grow will be resumed in 2010 and a CAGR of 19.3% till 2013 with revenue of $12.4B. 2010-2015.
The LED illumination market in architectural applications is domi¬nated by early adopters. Less than 5% of the potential architectural applications being specified in 2006 used LED fixtures. Around 9% in 2007, 14% in 2008, by 2012, Estimated almost 25% of the potential applications will have converted to LEDs. Though I think this figure is a bit too optimistic.
We can see that there were no LED replacement bulbs in the HK market in 2008. Now you can find more shops are promoting and selling them. It is becoming a momentum to start and soon becoming a bigger market that only takes a couple of years. When you can see LED replacement tight bulb in Welcome and Park’n. That will be the time. I foresee that base on what we are working on, we can have such branded 7W LED light bulbs selling At USD$5.00 to USD$8.00 in 2011.
The reason why we can not have more cost effective LED light bulb available in the market is partly due to the Efficiency of LED is still far below our expectation of 60% plus the volume of the LED is not able to keep the ASP down below a X2 value formula ( Price of LED light bulb to be 3X or less than incandescent lamp)
Incandescent lamp is having Luminous Efficacy of 0.7%-5.1% depending on the design and wattage of the light bulb, Fluorescent light is having a much high efficiency such as 9-26W compact Fluorescent lamp is 9-11%. However, LED is in the range of 20-27% which is two times higher. Well, the technology is non-stopping, thousands of scientists are seeking on numerous way to increasing the lighting Luminous efficiency by employing the following improvement. The target of more than 60% is not a dream one day as we can see that there is huge R&D team has been working on.
What should do as for long term action
We may go into a stragety and look for opportunity for these technology Packaging technology
-Novel Process
-Thermal management
-Lead frame material
-CTE balance
-Phosphor spraying
-Phosphor application
-Material Studies
-Phosphor efficiency
-Chip Design and Chip material
-AC LED design
-Driver design and power supply
Wish List
Hope that we can manage to create more innovation on LED assembly cost reduction. More National stimulus programme to support Green LED development, More Chip maker and LED packaging team can reduce the cost of a 1W LED to less than USD$0.20. Then we can see that your and my houses are prone to be using all LED as the Solid State Lighting!
feverip
Friday, September 25, 2009
Bright Light Tomorrow Lighting Prize $10M!
The US Department of Energy (DOE) has its first submission for the Bright Light Tomorrow Lighting Prize (ref L Prize) for an LED-based replacement lamp of the standard 60W A-19 "Edison" light bulb.
Consumer manufacturing giant Royal Philips Electronics has made the submission in an effort to access a share of the $10M worth or prize money that has been authorized, as well as to gain access to lucrative US government procurement opportunities.
A number of energy efficiency organizations and public utilities are involved in the extensive qualification processes, which include the DOE's laboratory-based measurements as well as durability and field testing that will evaluate additional subjective criteria garnered from real-world experience.
You may be able register and to participate with this challenging programme with your LED De sign and manufcaturing with some of the requiremnt met:
1. The LED Solid state lighting lamp has to have a minimum 75% efficency for converting the electroical to optical energy
2. The LED mauts have more than 75% f the process of assembly to be done in USA
3. The manufcaturing of the LED has to be in the territories of USA!
4. In addition, winners will need to provide evidence that "they are fully prepared to being production at a capacity that exceeds 250,000 units per year for the first year of production." (ref L-Prize submission criteria).
5. Submission of 2,000 units
If you are confident to achieve the about terms and requirement, go and start to pursue this price of US$10,000,000.00!
Consumer manufacturing giant Royal Philips Electronics has made the submission in an effort to access a share of the $10M worth or prize money that has been authorized, as well as to gain access to lucrative US government procurement opportunities.
A number of energy efficiency organizations and public utilities are involved in the extensive qualification processes, which include the DOE's laboratory-based measurements as well as durability and field testing that will evaluate additional subjective criteria garnered from real-world experience.
You may be able register and to participate with this challenging programme with your LED De sign and manufcaturing with some of the requiremnt met:
1. The LED Solid state lighting lamp has to have a minimum 75% efficency for converting the electroical to optical energy
2. The LED mauts have more than 75% f the process of assembly to be done in USA
3. The manufcaturing of the LED has to be in the territories of USA!
4. In addition, winners will need to provide evidence that "they are fully prepared to being production at a capacity that exceeds 250,000 units per year for the first year of production." (ref L-Prize submission criteria).
5. Submission of 2,000 units
If you are confident to achieve the about terms and requirement, go and start to pursue this price of US$10,000,000.00!
Sunday, September 13, 2009
What about the LED market in 2010?
There is huge demand for netbook together with note book computer from China to Peru. Note book and Net book is purging for more LED BLU in the market. There is no overcast, no cloud, all we can see is blue clear sky of White LED lighting, the only hidden concern is how some of the major Korean, Taiwanese, USA and European LED makers can have the LED chip for the markets.
Believe Samsung, LG, Sharp, Hitachi, Vizio and Philips is either making more LED for their own use or acquiring more from their subcons for the required LED quantity to meet the LED BLU LCD TV and Note book monitors. A forecast expect that there will be 5 times expansion of the LCD TV with LED backlight in 2010 comparing 2009. That is an estimation of 3.29M to 15 M sets. However, from the continuing improving of the LED efficacy there may be some kind re-engineering of the Backlit design. 5 % reduction in number of LED per LCD BLU will happen. Estimated that the market needs 1.4B LEDs for this LED TV and NB BLU in 2010.
US Obama administering has been subsidizing $2B total for replacing old automobile,
The programe” Cash for Clunkers” is encouraging Americans who want a new car and want to turn in their old car to go to their car dealer and the money will be there for either $3,500 or $4,500,” However that amount of 2B may not be big enough to be effective, probably 4B will be sufficient.
The German program was launched in January 2009. The Germans put more money on the table than their French neighbors: In France, a retired car is worth 1000 Euro with a new purchase. In Germany, it is 2500 Euro.
Believe Samsung, LG, Sharp, Hitachi, Vizio and Philips is either making more LED for their own use or acquiring more from their subcons for the required LED quantity to meet the LED BLU LCD TV and Note book monitors. A forecast expect that there will be 5 times expansion of the LCD TV with LED backlight in 2010 comparing 2009. That is an estimation of 3.29M to 15 M sets. However, from the continuing improving of the LED efficacy there may be some kind re-engineering of the Backlit design. 5 % reduction in number of LED per LCD BLU will happen. Estimated that the market needs 1.4B LEDs for this LED TV and NB BLU in 2010.
US Obama administering has been subsidizing $2B total for replacing old automobile,
The programe” Cash for Clunkers” is encouraging Americans who want a new car and want to turn in their old car to go to their car dealer and the money will be there for either $3,500 or $4,500,” However that amount of 2B may not be big enough to be effective, probably 4B will be sufficient.
The German program was launched in January 2009. The Germans put more money on the table than their French neighbors: In France, a retired car is worth 1000 Euro with a new purchase. In Germany, it is 2500 Euro.
This hit the proverbial sweet spot: According to the same ACEA numbers, January to June sales in Germany rose 26 percent. June sales in Germany were 40.5 percent above June 2008. (ACEA is on vacation. According to official statistics of the German Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt, July sales rose 29.5 percent.) ACEA stands for European Automobile manufacturer’s association.
The German program was originally funded with 1.5 billion Euro in Jan 2009. Two months after its launch, it was clear that the so-called "Abwrackprämien" program would run out of money quickly. In March 2009, funding was increased to 5 billion Euro, good for 2 million cars. As this is being typed, more than 1.8 million applications for the subsidy have been submitted, there is enough funding left for 155,000 cars. This is in a market that sells 3 million cars in a good year. Obviously, this program is a huge success.
From the “Abwrackprämien” programme their subsequent effect is to trigger an immediate demand of LED from the major Automotive LED suppliers after the stock has been reaching to replenishing level in May 2009.
Blooming of BLU LED, side by side by the higher adoption rate of LED illumination, LED will be remaining a hot item in 2010.
Sunday, July 26, 2009
LED Market Continues to Grow
2009 LED Market Size is expected at $6.9 billion
LED Market Grows to $14 Billion in size by 2013
-Large-sized LCD at No.1 market share followed by Handheld-use at No.2 market share
-LED Market is expected to grow from $5 billion in 2007 to $14 billion by 2013
-LED Market for Large-sized LCD is expected to sharply grow showing 135% CAGR in terms of revenue from 2007 to 2013.
Wednesday, July 8, 2009
Cree CEO Chuck Swoboda Participated in Presidential Roundtable on American Innovation and Clean Energy Technology
Chuck Swoboda and other CEOs representing American companies at the forefront of innovation were invited to meet with President Obama on 2 July to discuss American innovation in areas such as clean energy and the potential benefits to the U.S. These 8 Companies is Applied Material, Cree, Dow Corning, FPL Group, Hara, Hycrete, Positive Energy and Standard Renewable Energy.
President Obama commented on his meeting: “I just held a meeting with the CEOs of some of the most innovative energy companies in America to talk about growth and progress of a sector that represents a big piece of America's economic future.”
He continued, “These are folks whose companies are helping to lead the transformation towards a clean energy future. Even as we face tough economic times, even as we continue to lose jobs, the CEOs here told me that they're looking to hire new people, in some cases to double or even triple in size over the next few years. They are making money and they are helping their customers save money on the energy front.”
Asked about the message to small businesses, President Obama remarked, “Small businesses should probably contact some of these CEOs because it turns out they can save small businesses and large businesses alike up to 20 or 30 percent on their energy usage.”
Cree, being supported by Obama government would be in a very favourable situation in further expanding his LED chips development and packaging assembly vertical integration in China.
The Tallest one stood at the last row is Chuck.
Saturday, June 27, 2009
High Bright LED Market Overview and Forecast for 2010
Classification of LED by means of Drive Current
20mA is Low power
50-150mA is Medium power
150-1000mA is High Power
The most promising LED growth is the LED for lighting that as CAGR growth of 42% and Mobile application is 35% from 1998-2008
HBLED Market growth is of 2009 is 6.2 times of 1998, with total revenue of exceeding $5,000M in 2008.
Technologic advancement was prominent in year 2000 to 2009, especial the year 2005-2009, a lot of LED has great improved efficacy.
The 100Lm/watt Cool White LED and 80Lm/W warm white LED can be made in volume commercially in 2008. HBLED market continues to grown 11% from 2007 to 2008 to a $5.1B.
Mobile Phone
Mobile phone units continue to drop in 2009 since beginning of 2008 due to the world economic melt down. A senior executive of Nokia told me that that estimated unit produced in 2009 will be around 87% of 2008, (decreases of 13%)
Nokia no long call their product hand phone but handset, as more and more function and feature are embedded on the so called Mobile Phone….GPS, Camera of 8-12 MP…MP3, Radio, TV, office tool, and soon PicoP Projector. The Hi End phone of $600-900 is on one side becoming more expensive and would prolong it life cycle more for 6-12 months. Since end user would need more time to get used to all the functions and it is expensive. Whereas more and more low end phone would be selling at lower cost of $80. ULC hand phone is gone!
White Box Hand Phone
Since 2006, a Taiwanese phone chip maker invented a single MTK chip. Since then it is much easier to make a phone design with the chip that usually took a few years to develop! A lot of White Box business was growing like Spring Asparagus! This has driven the Chinese LED market to supply more the Side View LEDs.
HBLED Growth
As a result of most powerful equipment supplier of LED bonder with Higher production Output per dollar investment over these years since 2003. As other electronics component cycles do, the ASP continuous to drop -12% while mass product makes its tribute to increase at +20% from 2004-2008.
HBLED Unit growth 25% to 48B pieces in 2008.
LED for NB BLU
(Note book back light units) has been commercially available in volume, from the very first prototype display NB unit Cree has made in its Hong Kong regional Office Open Ceremony with an astonishing $700 as cost for a 14” display in 2005. Now the cost is approximately 8% of that!
Net Book Impact
HP, Fujitsu, Acer, Dell, Samsung and Apple all have LED Back Light on its new models. Dell has announced that they will go for 100%.
And yet Net book had created a new market for LED, recently Samsung and LG had announced to go for the Net book market with unconcealed intention of pursue another No. 1 for that market.
The Total net book shipment is 13 million in 2008 and will likely have 26 million this year. End of 2008 and on ward will see a lot of need for Side View LEDs.
Automobile Market
Automobile shipment continues to diminish in 2009, the number vehicles world wide shipment drops 4.3% and for EU, USA and Canada market drops 10%. Though the use of LED is becoming more from 200 to 350 pieces on an automobile, the total LED on Automobile will not be an influenced factor for HBLED growth in 2009-2010. The AFL (auto mobile front Lamp) has been used just for three models of cars in 2008-9, (namely Lexus LS600h, Audi R8 and GM's luxury division, Cadillac has signed on with the German automotive supplier Hella KGaA Hueck & Co., to offer a solution - low glare Light Emitting Diode (LED) headlamps. will be offered on its Escalade Platinum edition SUV. GM has resolved as we do not know if this model will be continue or not or with other name? The only seen successful case is Lumileds who builds the Real Hi Beam LED head lamp for Audi. However due to limited demand at this moment, This AFL impact is insignificant to the LED market as their market demand is too small.
LED Signage and Display
There is growth modestly by LED back light unit LCD TV and monitors and LED projector. LED pico Projector produced but have little impact for the market in 2008. Let’s see how it performs in 2009!
Light Fixture using LED
More than 400 companies are entering this LED light luminaries.
A lot of new application is using LED, both interior an exterior lightings
Volume is small and price is high independent of various product qualities from different supplier. LED is penetrating of niche and general lighting application, growth was 39% but overall volume is still small.
The largest is Architectural market at 43% of market, White LED accounts for 50% of the market. Highest growth market is Outdoor, Replacement Bulb, commercial and industrial and entrainment.
Osram, Philips had introduced their LED light bulbs for direct incandescent lamp replacement. Theirs Price is $40-60 whereas there are numerous Low cost LED lamps using tens of VLED (vertical LED lamp) found in the market at $2-8!. This LED industry is still plagued by these low quality and underperforming LED light fixtures!
LCD TV
Is your home still using Big Glass Bottle of CRT TV? Probably not many!
Many New LCD TV sets from Samsung, LG, Sony, Sharp, are using LED as their back light unit, we have seen a lot of new model in CES 2009. Though there is just around 1% of the TV is using LED Back light LCD display, the upcoming market is Gigantic!
Samsung has launched an aggressive promotional Campaign of $40M. Would continue maintaining its NO, 1 position in LCD TV export world wide. And would differentiatel other with unique thin profile, super picture quality and they would enjoy substantial profitability. Price difference is still high between CCFL ($500 as an average at retail).
Sony is using Hi Power RBG Unit at edge lit configuration to have colour Gamut advantage over CCFL.
Samsung developed the direct back light using low power high enhanced LED for wide colour gamut, enable local dimming and High Contrast on 9 series as top of the line. And a leading adaptor or edge-lit as to trade of full local dimming with thinner profile of 29.5mm on 6000, 7000 and 8000 Series LED TV! In US the model is called Luxia. Edge-lit can have a thin 1” thick, CCFL is 2” thick, and 4” for Direct LED back light. Samsung Claims a reduction of 40% power than CCFL. LG LH 90 Direct back light unit, with a 0.94” thickness using Silicone lenses, Local dimming with 200,000:1 Contrast Ratio, less 73% power consumption using its Smart Sensor system. Sony Bravia XZ1 Series (edge-lit) 0.39” thick.
Other Factors
LED will obtain substantial momentum to grow on Lighting market.
LED will grow 15% in 2009. With the recovery of the world economy, this will have >20% growth in 2010. Direct colour and intensity control plus colour mixing function functionality enhance the broad acceptable by many application designers. Continuous improvement in LED efficacy will further secure the adoption of LED on general white Light market. Maintenance free, long life time plus government body subsidies and regulation (EISA 2007, Title 24 California, EU regulations) are important market Development trigger.
Technical Challenge
Yet a lot of challenge ahead, Human Naked eye is sensitive to see slight different white color changes induce heavy burden for LED Company to product consistent colour, sorting cost becoming higher and handling of logistics in the sorting and binning process an bottle neck for as many as 512 bin Grades. Designing high efficient fixture with simplicity such as AC LED would be a way to reduce the overall installation cost of lighting application. Realistic claims of LED life time, LED fixture efficiency, Life time, quality of light Fixture, heat dissipation rate should be improved to win Customer’s confidence before mass materialization. I have seen a lot of Traffic Lamp, Toll display LED, and Even Hong Kong Express LED light fixture has lot of black out LEDs….
It requires some time to show that the real LED should last. Although I can not deny that some of the LED failure is not just the LED or the associated driver unit!
LED quality
However, as an overall quality, every piece of component should involve good quality engineering design and process optimization and stringent good quality control in the manufacturing stage. Least but not last, the use of proper Good Quality Bonding equipment; die Bonder AD830 and Wire bonder iHawk which are well accepted by almost 80% of the major users in the world.
Overview of 2009 market
The overall market atmosphere is still low until September 2009 that it finds its bottom and will start to grow. We foresee that it will embark a friendlier environment for LED to grow at a higher rate. The major growth is LCD BLU and SSL (solid state lighting) market segment in 2009
Forecast 2010
According to Strategies Unlimited the HBLED market grow will be resumed in 2010 and a CAGR of 19.3% till 2013 with revenue of $12.4B.
Data source: Strategies Unlimited reports
20mA is Low power
50-150mA is Medium power
150-1000mA is High Power
The most promising LED growth is the LED for lighting that as CAGR growth of 42% and Mobile application is 35% from 1998-2008
HBLED Market growth is of 2009 is 6.2 times of 1998, with total revenue of exceeding $5,000M in 2008.
Technologic advancement was prominent in year 2000 to 2009, especial the year 2005-2009, a lot of LED has great improved efficacy.
The 100Lm/watt Cool White LED and 80Lm/W warm white LED can be made in volume commercially in 2008. HBLED market continues to grown 11% from 2007 to 2008 to a $5.1B.
Mobile Phone
Mobile phone units continue to drop in 2009 since beginning of 2008 due to the world economic melt down. A senior executive of Nokia told me that that estimated unit produced in 2009 will be around 87% of 2008, (decreases of 13%)
Nokia no long call their product hand phone but handset, as more and more function and feature are embedded on the so called Mobile Phone….GPS, Camera of 8-12 MP…MP3, Radio, TV, office tool, and soon PicoP Projector. The Hi End phone of $600-900 is on one side becoming more expensive and would prolong it life cycle more for 6-12 months. Since end user would need more time to get used to all the functions and it is expensive. Whereas more and more low end phone would be selling at lower cost of $80. ULC hand phone is gone!
White Box Hand Phone
Since 2006, a Taiwanese phone chip maker invented a single MTK chip. Since then it is much easier to make a phone design with the chip that usually took a few years to develop! A lot of White Box business was growing like Spring Asparagus! This has driven the Chinese LED market to supply more the Side View LEDs.
HBLED Growth
As a result of most powerful equipment supplier of LED bonder with Higher production Output per dollar investment over these years since 2003. As other electronics component cycles do, the ASP continuous to drop -12% while mass product makes its tribute to increase at +20% from 2004-2008.
HBLED Unit growth 25% to 48B pieces in 2008.
LED for NB BLU
(Note book back light units) has been commercially available in volume, from the very first prototype display NB unit Cree has made in its Hong Kong regional Office Open Ceremony with an astonishing $700 as cost for a 14” display in 2005. Now the cost is approximately 8% of that!
Net Book Impact
HP, Fujitsu, Acer, Dell, Samsung and Apple all have LED Back Light on its new models. Dell has announced that they will go for 100%.
And yet Net book had created a new market for LED, recently Samsung and LG had announced to go for the Net book market with unconcealed intention of pursue another No. 1 for that market.
The Total net book shipment is 13 million in 2008 and will likely have 26 million this year. End of 2008 and on ward will see a lot of need for Side View LEDs.
Automobile Market
Automobile shipment continues to diminish in 2009, the number vehicles world wide shipment drops 4.3% and for EU, USA and Canada market drops 10%. Though the use of LED is becoming more from 200 to 350 pieces on an automobile, the total LED on Automobile will not be an influenced factor for HBLED growth in 2009-2010. The AFL (auto mobile front Lamp) has been used just for three models of cars in 2008-9, (namely Lexus LS600h, Audi R8 and GM's luxury division, Cadillac has signed on with the German automotive supplier Hella KGaA Hueck & Co., to offer a solution - low glare Light Emitting Diode (LED) headlamps. will be offered on its Escalade Platinum edition SUV. GM has resolved as we do not know if this model will be continue or not or with other name? The only seen successful case is Lumileds who builds the Real Hi Beam LED head lamp for Audi. However due to limited demand at this moment, This AFL impact is insignificant to the LED market as their market demand is too small.
LED Signage and Display
There is growth modestly by LED back light unit LCD TV and monitors and LED projector. LED pico Projector produced but have little impact for the market in 2008. Let’s see how it performs in 2009!
Light Fixture using LED
More than 400 companies are entering this LED light luminaries.
A lot of new application is using LED, both interior an exterior lightings
Volume is small and price is high independent of various product qualities from different supplier. LED is penetrating of niche and general lighting application, growth was 39% but overall volume is still small.
The largest is Architectural market at 43% of market, White LED accounts for 50% of the market. Highest growth market is Outdoor, Replacement Bulb, commercial and industrial and entrainment.
Osram, Philips had introduced their LED light bulbs for direct incandescent lamp replacement. Theirs Price is $40-60 whereas there are numerous Low cost LED lamps using tens of VLED (vertical LED lamp) found in the market at $2-8!. This LED industry is still plagued by these low quality and underperforming LED light fixtures!
LCD TV
Is your home still using Big Glass Bottle of CRT TV? Probably not many!
Many New LCD TV sets from Samsung, LG, Sony, Sharp, are using LED as their back light unit, we have seen a lot of new model in CES 2009. Though there is just around 1% of the TV is using LED Back light LCD display, the upcoming market is Gigantic!
Samsung has launched an aggressive promotional Campaign of $40M. Would continue maintaining its NO, 1 position in LCD TV export world wide. And would differentiatel other with unique thin profile, super picture quality and they would enjoy substantial profitability. Price difference is still high between CCFL ($500 as an average at retail).
Sony is using Hi Power RBG Unit at edge lit configuration to have colour Gamut advantage over CCFL.
Samsung developed the direct back light using low power high enhanced LED for wide colour gamut, enable local dimming and High Contrast on 9 series as top of the line. And a leading adaptor or edge-lit as to trade of full local dimming with thinner profile of 29.5mm on 6000, 7000 and 8000 Series LED TV! In US the model is called Luxia. Edge-lit can have a thin 1” thick, CCFL is 2” thick, and 4” for Direct LED back light. Samsung Claims a reduction of 40% power than CCFL. LG LH 90 Direct back light unit, with a 0.94” thickness using Silicone lenses, Local dimming with 200,000:1 Contrast Ratio, less 73% power consumption using its Smart Sensor system. Sony Bravia XZ1 Series (edge-lit) 0.39” thick.
Other Factors
LED will obtain substantial momentum to grow on Lighting market.
LED will grow 15% in 2009. With the recovery of the world economy, this will have >20% growth in 2010. Direct colour and intensity control plus colour mixing function functionality enhance the broad acceptable by many application designers. Continuous improvement in LED efficacy will further secure the adoption of LED on general white Light market. Maintenance free, long life time plus government body subsidies and regulation (EISA 2007, Title 24 California, EU regulations) are important market Development trigger.
Technical Challenge
Yet a lot of challenge ahead, Human Naked eye is sensitive to see slight different white color changes induce heavy burden for LED Company to product consistent colour, sorting cost becoming higher and handling of logistics in the sorting and binning process an bottle neck for as many as 512 bin Grades. Designing high efficient fixture with simplicity such as AC LED would be a way to reduce the overall installation cost of lighting application. Realistic claims of LED life time, LED fixture efficiency, Life time, quality of light Fixture, heat dissipation rate should be improved to win Customer’s confidence before mass materialization. I have seen a lot of Traffic Lamp, Toll display LED, and Even Hong Kong Express LED light fixture has lot of black out LEDs….
It requires some time to show that the real LED should last. Although I can not deny that some of the LED failure is not just the LED or the associated driver unit!
LED quality
However, as an overall quality, every piece of component should involve good quality engineering design and process optimization and stringent good quality control in the manufacturing stage. Least but not last, the use of proper Good Quality Bonding equipment; die Bonder AD830 and Wire bonder iHawk which are well accepted by almost 80% of the major users in the world.
Overview of 2009 market
The overall market atmosphere is still low until September 2009 that it finds its bottom and will start to grow. We foresee that it will embark a friendlier environment for LED to grow at a higher rate. The major growth is LCD BLU and SSL (solid state lighting) market segment in 2009
Forecast 2010
According to Strategies Unlimited the HBLED market grow will be resumed in 2010 and a CAGR of 19.3% till 2013 with revenue of $12.4B.
Data source: Strategies Unlimited reports
Saturday, June 20, 2009
No One Can escape from the Miserable First Quarter?
According to iSupply Corp., no one is immune in the miserable condition of first quarters 2009 as a continuous dwon fall momentum of market need Q4 2008.
Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue in Q109 declined to $44.2B, 18.8% as comparing with $54.4B in Q408, and a decline of 33.8% from 66.8B in the Q108.
On positive side, Revenue will rise by 7.1%, 10.4% and 4.95 in Q2, Q3 and Q4 respectively.
Amongst the players. We see Osram, one of major suppliers for LED, is in the list; as probably due to change in exchange rate would be an notable impact on the revenue growth when converted to common dollar basis.
Robert Yeh, chairman of Everlight Electronics Inc, Taipei, June 15, 2009 (CENS), said at the Photronics Festival in Taiwan 2009, held June 10-12, that supply of LED chips is expected to fall behind demand until the second half of 2010, with prices to trend upward.
Yeh is optimistic about industrial prosperity in the second half of this year through next year, stressing that demand from notebook PC, TV and lighting sectors has infused strong growth momentum into the LED industry. Particularly, he added, increasing popularity of LED-backlit LCD TVs will serve as major growth drive this year.
I am confident that LED market will keep growing in the next three Quarters! More competitive device will be made in the market in larger scale, the Equipment supplier will have go into this hot market will fast pace or will be erased by their competitors.
Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue in Q109 declined to $44.2B, 18.8% as comparing with $54.4B in Q408, and a decline of 33.8% from 66.8B in the Q108.
On positive side, Revenue will rise by 7.1%, 10.4% and 4.95 in Q2, Q3 and Q4 respectively.
Amongst the players. We see Osram, one of major suppliers for LED, is in the list; as probably due to change in exchange rate would be an notable impact on the revenue growth when converted to common dollar basis.
Robert Yeh, chairman of Everlight Electronics Inc, Taipei, June 15, 2009 (CENS), said at the Photronics Festival in Taiwan 2009, held June 10-12, that supply of LED chips is expected to fall behind demand until the second half of 2010, with prices to trend upward.
Yeh is optimistic about industrial prosperity in the second half of this year through next year, stressing that demand from notebook PC, TV and lighting sectors has infused strong growth momentum into the LED industry. Particularly, he added, increasing popularity of LED-backlit LCD TVs will serve as major growth drive this year.
I am confident that LED market will keep growing in the next three Quarters! More competitive device will be made in the market in larger scale, the Equipment supplier will have go into this hot market will fast pace or will be erased by their competitors.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)