Viva futbol

We're once again at that point in the four-year cycle where my soccer fanaticism is less of an oddity and more of a convenience for people looking to sound like the know more about the World Cup than just who's playing this time.

Must Win Situation already has their ill-informed picks posted, so with little time to spare before the opening match gets underway, I figured I'd do the same--though much quicker.

Group A: Out of all the groups, the first one is by far the hardest to predict. All the teams are potential wildcards, and it wouldn't really be a huge shock to see any of them make it to the next round or fail to do so. France is being completely written off by almost everybody because of their horrid qualifying campaign, but they really are a good team--and getting drawn in such a weak group can only be good for them. I see France making it through this group pretty easily. The second playoff spot is a little harder to predict--South Africa isn't a good team but will have home-field advantage, Mexico has looked good in qualifying, but faced a lower level of competition than the European or South American teams, and Uruguay was one of the last teams to qualify, but did have a tougher opposition. I've got South Africa going through, but absolutely nothing would surprise me in this group.

Group B: Argentina have to be the top dogs--and secretly they're my favourite of the traditional powerhouses as well--but the rest of this group is full of plucky B-level sides that could surprise people in the knockout rounds. Nigeria is historically one of the best African sides, South Korea has shown occasional flashes of brilliance (though to be fair, they were co-hosts in 2002), and Greece plays a solid if boring defensive game that propelled them to the Euro 2004 trophy. I've got Nigeria going through, but like with Group A, anything could happen.

Group C: This one's a bit easier to predict, with a powerhouse, a solid upper-level team, and a couple that only show up once a decade or so. Upsets can always happen, but I expect this one to play out exactly as the numbers would have you believe. England and the US are two of the most overrated teams in the tournament--but that's to be expected, given any country is biased towards its national squads, and most of our World Cup knowledge comes from either the UK or the US. I still think they'll be able to make it through pretty easily, because neither Algeria nor Slovenia is much of a force to be reckoned with.

Group D: Germany, Germany, Germany. Yes, Michael Ballack's injury is going to hamper Germany's chances at winning the whole tournament, but they should be able to breeze through the group stage. The second spot is a bit more up for grabs--Australia, Ghana, and Serbia are three potential breakout teams in my opinion, any of them could grab second and make a surprising run, all of them are teams to watch for the future. When I actually look at the matchups head-to-head I have Ghana making it through, so let's go with that.

Group E: The Netherlands are the "always the bridesmaid, never the bride" of FIFA, having revolutionized the game without winning the World Cup. With these opponents, it will be easy for the orange-clad Dutch to make it through to the next round in great position. Second place is a bit more of a conundrum--Cameroon is perhaps the weakest African side in the competition, but also has a very easy draw. Japan isn't exactly a powerhouse, but could squeak through against this weak opposition. Denmark is my pick, though--one of the weaker European teams, but a group that can pull out a result from time to time, and certainly they'll have easier opposition here than they did in qualifying.

Group F: Italy's group to lose, and they ain't losing it. Similarly, nobody expects anything from New Zealand, and I suspect they'll deliver exactly that, which means second place could come down to whoever wins the Slovakia/Paraguay match. I could see that one going either way--and neither team will do much in the playoffs--but let's go with Paraguay making it through.

Group G: Originally the 'group of death' (and a hearty lol at local radio host Gary Doyle for suggestion that C was just as bad), this group has suddenly gotten a lot simpler to predict since Didier Drogba's broken arm. Ivory Coast might stand a chance without him in another group, but not against Brazil and Portugal. And as for North Korea, well, not this year. If any group has a strict 9/6/3/0 split, this will be the one.

Group H: Spain and then anybody's guess. Spain are perhaps my favourites to (finally) go all the way, they're certainly not going to fail against any of their opposition here. I have the Swiss in second, but that's because the Swiss have been my adopted team since the 2006 World Cup when they nearly made the quarter-finals. Chile and to a lesser extent Honduras have strong teams as well, and objectively I could see Chile taking second, but that's not gonna happen, right?

Playoffs: Not going through my reasoning because frankly I'm not knowledgeable enough to make more than an educated guess, but France over Nigeria, Ghana with an upset over England, Netherlands over Paraguay, Brazil over Switzerland, Argentina over South Africa, Germany over USA, Italy over Denmark, Spain over Portugal. France, Brazil, Argentina and Spain make it through to the semi-finals, and Spain beats Brazil in the final.

I'll be back in a month to profess my embarrassment.

--Ryan